composite

Optical Supercycle Core

members 6 weighting equal benchmark SPY

Equal-weight composite of the proven Wave-1 optical names: the lasers, transceivers, systems, and interconnect layers of the AI photonics build-out that NVIDIA anchored with direct investment (LITE, COHR) — plus the module and retimer layers riding the same capex (FN, CIEN, ALAB, CRDO).

Cumulative return since Sep 21 — both lines start at 0%, so the gap between them IS the out/under-performance. Hover for daily values.

	1D	7D	30D	3M	1Y
cohort	-11.2%	-13.5%	-22.0%	-25.9%	+102.8%
SPY	-1.2%	-1.0%	-1.2%	+3.5%	+14.4%
Δ	-10.0%	-12.5%	-20.7%	-29.4%	+88.4%

equal-weight · buy-and-hold from window start, no rebalancing · 3M+ windows are a current-roster backcast.

30D breadth 0/6 up

trend: 0 up · 0 flat · 6 down · avg RSI 33 · 17% above SMA200 · covered 6/6

contributors

CIEN-2.1pp-12.5%

CRDO-2.6pp-15.5%

LITE-3.4pp-20.4%

FN-3.6pp-21.3%

ALAB-4.8pp-29.1%

detractors

COHR-5.5pp-33.0%

CIEN $322.64 -10.7% -12.5% -20.8% +96.2% 40 retreating -49.4%

CRDO $162.77 -10.7% -15.5% -31.2% +18.6% 37 retreating -47.3%

LITE $752.54 -11.5% -20.4% -9.7% +376.1% 34 coming into play -34.2%

FN $317.67 -10.8% -21.3% -38.6% -20.6% 27 retreating -57.6%

ALAB $257.82 -11.1% -29.1% -21.1% +66.5% 32 coming into play -48.4%

COHR $207.82 -12.5% -33.0% -33.6% +80.1% 30 retreating -52.8%