Calls

Calls

What the desk said would happen. Every open call and price target, each with the condition it's still waiting on and the source row behind it — claims made, not yet graded. What's actually held is on Positions; decisions you log get graded in the Decision Log.

Projection

open calls 82 open targets 20 targets snapshot

Stalking

The desk's unspent conviction: focus-list names backed by a high-priority thesis, with no position in any book — plus names it looked at and passed on. Each entry line is a call or target from the sections below.

Stalking 3
  • MU entry $1,000–$1,025 — a flag back toward the rising SMA20 — ✅ HIT memory-supercycle
  • NTR entry $75-$78 — OPEN - NTR $71.26, RSI 48.6, weak-down trend, -8.3% 30D, 5.0... energy-to-humanitarian-transmission
  • SNDK entry A new flag and held base, then a close strictly above $1740.00. Friday’s equal close leaves this... — open watch call · review by 2026-09-30 memory-supercycle
Passed 37
ADBE2026-09-25ARQQ2026-10-22ASTS2026-10-09CIFR2026-07-08CORZ2026-07-08DK2026-07-18

Alarm board

One bell per independent signal family — research, trigger, tape, advisory, regime. Calls with 3+ bells lit are the loudest convergences on the book; 5 of 5 means every family agrees · as of .

ARKX $29.63 3 of 5 bells coming into play

3 of 5 bells lit — research, advisory, regime

watch
GLD $369.00 3 of 5 bells coming into play

3 of 5 bells lit — research, advisory, regime

watch
RSP $218.22 3 of 5 bells coming into play

3 of 5 bells lit — research, advisory, regime

watch

Broken & fading

Calls that stopped working — the counterpart to the alarm board above. Red: the invalidation fired (dead until the desk resolves it). Amber: the setup was in its zone and slipped back out without triggering. A dying call loses bells and drops off the alarm board, so this is where it surfaces. Newest first; no time window — a row leaves only when the desk resolves the call.

AGIO invalidation fired coming into play

a settled close below the 200-day ($30.93) before the reclaim breaks this reset

broke Oct 22
CDNSE invalidation fired coming into play

a close below the $317.27 support shelf

broke Oct 22
SMH invalidation fired coming into play

a close below Friday's low ($536.81) means the bounce attempt failed and the next leg down is open

broke Oct 22
TLT invalidation fired retreating

a new price low after the reclaim; the peak was not in

broke Oct 22
WDAY invalidation fired coming into play

a close below the 50-day (about $180.93 on 2026-09-25)

broke Oct 22
ZM left its zone coming into play

Left its entry zone on 2026-10-22 without hitting the invalidation.

faded Oct 22
ARKX invalidation fired coming into play

a close below the $30.47 value-area low

broke Oct 16
CEG invalidation fired coming into play

A settled close below the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close), or a third-quarter report (expected around Nov 9, provider date) that does not confirm the Google agreement's terms

broke Oct 16
LITE invalidation fired coming into play

A close below the 50-day ($879.03 at the Oct 2 close), or fiscal Q1 2027 revenue below the $1.225B low end of guidance at the report expected around Nov 5

broke Oct 16
S invalidation fired coming into play

a close below the 50-day ($16.85) — the 20 and 50 sit close together here, so a failed hold resolves the read fast

broke Oct 16
AMAT invalidation fired retreating

Settled close below $407.06 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.

broke Oct 15
AVGO invalidation fired coming into play

a close below the $345.49 support shelf

broke Oct 15
LRCX invalidation fired retreating

Settled close below $260.90 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.

broke Oct 15
PANW invalidation fired coming into play

a close below the 50-day ($283.88) breaks the momentum regime for the lane's leader

broke Oct 15
CCJ invalidation fired retreating

the $84 shelf fails — then the fuel-cycle unwind has further to run

broke Oct 14
DBA invalidation fired coming into play

DBA loses its 200-day (4.1% below Friday's close) or the Oct 14 print leaves food at home flat-to-negative again

broke Oct 14
NVDA invalidation fired in trend

Settled close below $210.57 (50-day average; preserved predecessor) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.

broke Oct 14
LEU invalidation fired retreating

HALEU contract flow stalls, or the base never forms and lower lows continue

broke Oct 13
MXL left its zone coming into play

Left its entry zone on 2026-10-13 without hitting the invalidation.

faded Oct 13
CBRS invalidation fired

a finish under the flush low ($160.81) — no base; the debut air pocket is still open

broke Oct 12
RKLB invalidation fired retreating

a close below the $68.29 volume shelf; after an entry, a close back under the 200-day

broke Oct 9
WDC invalidation fired retreating

Settled close below $372.81 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.

broke Oct 8
DRNZ invalidation fired retreating

a close below the $19.29 July 29 low, which breaks the base; after an entry, a close back under the 200-day

broke Oct 7
AXON invalidation fired retreating

a close below the 50-day ($525.63)

broke Oct 5
GDX invalidation fired coming into play

a close below its 200-day, which would confirm gold's break

broke Oct 5
GLD invalidation fired coming into play

failure to reclaim $414.79 alongside GDX losing its own 200-day — metal and miners breaking together is the pattern that matters

broke Oct 5
KRE invalidation fired coming into play

a close below the August low (~$75) on the same day HYG loses its 200-day (~$78.35) — then the bond story has become a bank story

broke Oct 5
SIL invalidation fired retreating

a close below its 200-day

broke Oct 5
AKAM invalidation fired retreating

a close below the $108.28 support shelf

broke Sep 30
VSAT invalidation fired retreating

a close below the $69.33 support shelf

broke Sep 30
CRWV invalidation fired retreating

a close below the $85.64 support shelf

broke Sep 29
GDX invalidation fired coming into play

a close below the 200-day (~$88) once the blink rally fades

broke Sep 29
SLV invalidation fired retreating

loses the 50-day ($56.64), leaving the week a miner-only move

broke Sep 29
UUP invalidation fired coming into play

a UUP reclaim of its 20-day ($28.34) on rising RSI drains the rates channel this rally runs on

broke Sep 17
CRDO invalidation fired retreating

a finish under the 200-day (~$160) — until then pullbacks are digestion in an intact uptrend

broke Sep 14
VRT invalidation fired retreating

Settled close below $257.40 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.

broke Sep 10
CEG invalidation fired coming into play

Settled close below $296.36 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.

broke Sep 9
BNO invalidation fired in trend

a settled close above ~$57 (Brent ~$100)

broke Sep 8
VKTX invalidation fired retreating

a settled close below the $32.63 support shelf before the reclaim breaks this reset

broke Aug 28
HYG invalidation fired retreating

a close below the 200-day (~$78.35): credit stops confirming, and the 2018/2022 playbook (10–22% index drawdown into the yield peak) is live

broke Aug 25
DUK invalidation fired coming into play

loses the 200-day (~$123) — the defensive bid is gone

broke Aug 10
ELAN invalidation fired coming into play

a close below the 50-day (~$23.68) — the near-high structure failed; back to priced

broke Aug 8
WULF invalidation fired retreating

cash burn without contracted revenue landing by the Q3 print, or a breakdown under the $15.67 support shelf

broke Jul 29
KGS invalidation fired retreating

a finish under $57.50 (top of the prior value area) says the datacenter-power re-rate failed

broke Jul 28
PL invalidation fired retreating

a close below the 30-day low ($21.03) opens the next leg down and resets the whole watch

broke Jul 26
TLN invalidation fired coming into play

a close below $360 turns the pullback into a breakdown

broke Jul 26
IREN invalidation fired retreating

a finish back under ~$35, the level the bounce launched from — that says the bottom failed

broke Jul 16
APLD invalidation fired retreating

gross margin rolls back over the next print, or a break below $28 (the one-year VWAP and support shelf)

broke Jul 15
NTLA invalidation fired retreating

a finish under the ~$14.20 cluster (50-day and the nearest volume support shelf) says the turn failed

broke Jul 13

Desk Calls

A Desk Call is the authored stance from a report. Its plan badge is the shared settled entry state; entry and invalidation retain the authored conditions, and review-by is the analyst's stated horizon — a date, not a deadline.

EntryInvalidationSource
Oct 22 LITE watch research A close back above the 200-day average ($786.23 at the Oct 22 close) after the report expected around Nov 5, with fiscal Q1 revenue inside or above the $1.225B–$1.275B guide and a fiscal Q2 revenue guide above that range Fiscal Q1 revenue below the $1.225B low end of guidance at the Nov 5 report, or a close below the one-year VWAP ($695.87 at the Oct 22 close) pending pending Nov 9 open
Oct 16 CIBR watch research CIBR holds its 200-day average ($81.59 on the October 16 close) through a flag, then closes two sessions in a row back over its 50-day average ($100.11 on the October 16 close) CIBR closes below its 200-day average ($81.59 on the October 16 close), turning a pullback inside a +32.08% year into a broken trend pending pending Nov 13 open
Oct 9 ASTS pass research None; a broken long trend that lost a reported spectrum source. Revisit after a base and a close above the 50-day average ($62.85 at the Oct 9 close) The pass is wrong on a close above the 50-day average that holds through the report the provider dates to Nov 9 pending pending Nov 13 open
Oct 9 CEG watch research A pullback that holds above the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close) while RSI cools below 55, then a settled close above $300.40, the October 6 close on the Google agreement A settled close below the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close), or a third-quarter report (expected around Nov 9, provider date) that does not confirm the Google agreement's terms pending pending Nov 13 broken
Oct 2 LITE watch research A flag that holds above the 20-day average ($941.73 at the Oct 2 close) while RSI cools below 60, then a close at a new 52-week high A close below the 50-day ($879.03 at the Oct 2 close), or fiscal Q1 2027 revenue below the $1.225B low end of guidance at the report expected around Nov 5 pending pending Nov 6 broken
Sep 30 ARKX watch research after a close back above the 200-day (about $32.41 on 2026-09-29), a close through the $35.85 base pivot a close below the $30.47 value-area low pending pending Dec 15 broken
Sep 30 DRNZ watch research a close above both the 200-day (about $24.00 on 2026-09-29) and the $25.32 most-traded price, then a flag that holds above them a close below the $19.29 July 29 low, which breaks the base; after an entry, a close back under the 200-day pending pending Dec 11 broken
Sep 25 ACN watch research after the report scheduled for October 1, a close above $197.63, the top of its seven-week base, which sits on the 200-day (about $197.98) a close below the $172.19 support shelf pending pending Oct 23 in zone
Sep 25 ADBE pass research none; revisit on a base and a close above the 200-day (about $262.68 on 2026-09-25) the pass is wrong on a close above the 200-day (about $262.68) pending pending Dec 18 open
Sep 25 AKAM watch research a flag that holds the $108.28 support shelf, then a close above $126.02 (top of the one-year value area) a close below the $108.28 support shelf pending pending Nov 13 broken
Sep 25 AVGO watch research a close above the 200-day (about $368.35 on 2026-09-25) that holds for a week a close below the $345.49 support shelf pending pending Dec 18 broken
Sep 25 CDNSE watch research a pullback that holds the $317.27 support shelf, then a close above $352.55 (top of the one-year value area) a close below the $317.27 support shelf pending pending Nov 6 broken
Sep 25 CRWV watch research a close above the 200-day (about $92.18 on 2026-09-25) with the $85.64 support shelf intact a close below the $85.64 support shelf pending pending Nov 20 broken
Sep 25 FLY pass research none; down on the year and under the 200-day (about $27.79 on 2026-09-25); revisit after the report calendared for November 11 the pass is wrong on a close above the 200-day (about $27.79) pending pending Nov 27 open
Sep 25 GSAT pass research none; priced off Amazon's pending merger terms, not a trend the pass is wrong only if the Amazon deal breaks or is re-cut pending pending Nov 20 open
Sep 25 HUBS pass research none; revisit on a base and a close above the 200-day (about $250.71 on 2026-09-25) the pass is wrong on a close above the 200-day (about $250.71) pending pending Nov 13 open
Sep 25 INTU pass research none; revisit after weeks of basing above the $262.24 shelf and a close above the 50-day (about $324.65 on 2026-09-25) the pass is wrong on a close above the 50-day (about $324.65) pending pending Nov 27 open
Sep 25 IRDM pass research none; a merger-arbitrage price set by $27 cash plus Rocket Lab stock, not a trend the pass is wrong only if the Rocket Lab deal breaks or is re-cut pending pending Nov 20 open
Sep 25 NOW watch research after the pullback holds the 50-day (about $125.79 on 2026-09-25), a close back above the 20-day (about $138.75) a close below the 50-day (about $125.79 on 2026-09-25) pending pending Nov 6 in zone
Sep 25 ORCL pass research none; revisit on a base that reclaims the 200-day (about $164.54 on 2026-09-25) with free cash flow less negative at the December report the pass is wrong on a close above the 200-day (about $164.54) pending pending Dec 18 open
Sep 25 PL pass research none; revisit on a close above the 50-day (about $20.40 on 2026-09-25) that holds a higher low above the $16.53 shelf the pass is wrong on a close above the 50-day (about $20.40) pending pending Dec 18 open
Sep 25 RKLB watch research a close above both the 200-day (about $81.09 on 2026-09-25) and the anchored VWAP from the low ($82.22), then a flag that holds above them a close below the $68.29 volume shelf; after an entry, a close back under the 200-day pending pending Nov 20 broken
Sep 25 SPCX watch research a confirmed close above the $156.87 range high a close below the $142.58 support shelf pending pending Dec 18 in zone
Sep 25 TTD pass research none; revisit on a close above the 50-day (about $15.11 on 2026-09-25) after the report scheduled for November 5 the pass is wrong on a close above the 50-day (about $15.11) pending pending Nov 13 open
Sep 25 VSAT watch research pullback in an intact trend: a close back above the 50-day (about $75.29 on 2026-09-25) a close below the $69.33 support shelf pending pending Nov 20 broken
Sep 25 WDAY watch research a close back above the 20-day (about $193.30 on 2026-09-25) with the 50-day (about $180.93) intact; a signed take-private agreement ends the trend case a close below the 50-day (about $180.93 on 2026-09-25) pending pending Dec 11 broken
Sep 25 ZS watch research the pullback holds $188 and closes back above $198 (the September breakout zone) on lighter volume than 2026-09-25 a close below $170, the 2026-09-14 breakout-day low pending pending Dec 4 in zone
Sep 23 RSP watch research RSP closes back above its 20-day average ($216.10 on the Sept 23 close) on a session when at least nine of the eleven sector funds close green, with TLT back above its own 20-day ($81.75 on Sept 23) RSP closes below its 200-day average ($205.15 on the Sept 23 close), turning a pullback inside an up year into a broken trend pending pending Oct 23 in zone
Sep 18 DBA watch research DBA back over its 50-day with RSI above 50 (Sept 18 close $28.15, RSI 41.4, 0.3% under the 50-day), confirmed by a positive food-at-home month in the September CPI on Oct 14 DBA loses its 200-day (4.1% below Friday's close) or the Oct 14 print leaves food at home flat-to-negative again -0.5% pending Oct 14 broken
Sep 18 MSTR watch research Not this print. Strategy would have to hold $137.04 (its 200-day) and $134.95 (its nearest support shelf) through a giveback, with bitcoin above $79,138.49, and cool from Friday's 66.1 momentum reading and +16.9% stretch over its own 20-day average before a flag exists Strategy closes back under $137.04, or bitcoin loses $79,138.49 — either one makes Friday a one-session spike rather than a reclaim -12.3% pending Oct 2 open
Sep 7 SNDK watch research A new flag and held base, then a close strictly above $1740.00. Friday’s equal close leaves this condition incomplete; require Sandisk-specific NAND pricing and demand support. Failure of the new base, or verified NAND price declines alongside customer inventory accumulation or material order reductions. -4.1% pending Sep 30 open
Sep 6 AMAT watch research counter WAIT: close above $489.46 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, customer spending and export-exposure review; dip volume was not light. Price alone cannot authorize BUY. Settled close below $407.06 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately. +10.4% pending Sep 11 broken
Sep 6 LRCX watch research counter WAIT: close above $312.76 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, memory spending and capacity evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY. Settled close below $260.90 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately. +2.5% pending Sep 11 broken
Sep 6 NVDA watch research counter WAIT: close above $236.54 (established pivot; preserved predecessor); Settled volume-supported breakout plus fresh supply, margins and customer-demand review. Price alone cannot authorize BUY. Settled close below $210.57 (50-day average; preserved predecessor) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately. +4.3% pending Sep 11 broken
Sep 6 TSM watch research counter WAIT: close above $461.47 (established pivot); Settled volume-supported breakout plus current company capacity, demand and margin review; local flag ceiling was not cleared Friday. Price alone cannot authorize BUY. Settled close below $372.83 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately. +8.2% pending Sep 11 in zone
Sep 6 WDC watch research counter WAIT: close above $468.19 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus current allocation, pricing and capacity evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY. Settled close below $372.81 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately. -15.6% pending Sep 11 broken
Aug 28 GDX watch research the confirming leg, not the broken one — 11.6% above its 200-day on a +62.48% year; a pullback that holds that average is the entry the structure supports a close below its 200-day, which would confirm gold's break -11.3% pending Sep 25 broken
Aug 28 GLD watch research a close back above the 200-day ($414.79) that holds a full week; below that the break stands and there is no entry failure to reclaim $414.79 alongside GDX losing its own 200-day — metal and miners breaking together is the pattern that matters -7.1% pending Sep 4 broken
Aug 28 SLV pass research n/a — 7.7% below its own 200-day and widening; a reclaim of that average is the first thing that would make it discussable n/a -8.0% pending Sep 25 open
Aug 24 AGIO watch research after the current reset prints a higher low, reclaims the 50-day ($35.56) with RSI above 55 and relative volume at least 1.0x a settled close below the 200-day ($30.93) before the reclaim breaks this reset +4.2% pending Sep 24 broken
Aug 24 DHR watch research after a pullback to the $210.39 volume shelf, holds and turns back above it with RSI in the 55-65 reset band and relative volume at least 1.0x a settled close below the 200-day ($202.97) breaks the quality-laggard trend structure +2.4% pending Sep 24 in zone
Aug 19 GDX watch research the policy-blink bid is real but entries are pullbacks, not +8% days — a hold of the 200-day (~$88) and a pullback toward the 20-day (~$82–85) with RSI off 70 a close below the 200-day (~$88) once the blink rally fades -0.9% pending Sep 19 broken
Aug 19 KRE watch research not a trade — the bank-stress tell the bond-fear feed keeps asserting; regionals are 3.4% lower since August 4, not in a rout a close below the August low (~$75) on the same day HYG loses its 200-day (~$78.35) — then the bond story has become a bank story -2.0% pending Sep 19 broken
Aug 18 HYG watch research not a trade — the tell. Credit at -0.31% from its high while the long bond makes 19-year lows in price is the whole reason equities can ignore this a close below the 200-day (~$78.35): credit stops confirming, and the 2018/2022 playbook (10–22% index drawdown into the yield peak) is live -0.4% pending Sep 19 broken
Aug 18 SPY watch research no new entry — the trend is intact 0.86% off its high; hold it while the 200-day (~$703) and the credit tape hold a close below the 200-day (~$703) with HYG breaking its own 200-day — the rate scare has become an equity event 0.0% pending Sep 19 open
Aug 18 TLT watch research the historical equity low arrives AT the yield peak, so the long bond is only worth owning once the peak prints — first sign is TLT reclaiming its 20-day (~$82.60) on a day the news is bad for bonds a new price low after the reclaim; the peak was not in +0.8% pending Sep 19 broken
Aug 15 ITA pass research no entry 2.69% off a 52-week high with RSI 64.4; the wrapper prices the primes, not the drone chain a pullback into the $239.75-$243.94 moving-average band forces a re-look — as a defense position, not a drone one -12.2% pending Sep 30 open
Aug 15 UMAC watch research a pullback that bases in $21-$24, where the value-area high ($21.09), 50-day ($22.47) and 20-day ($23.21) converge; never the parabola a close below $18.50, or a third straight quarter of widening operating loss on higher revenue -23.3% pending Oct 9 open
Aug 8 SLV watch research the laggard of the complex at 9.8% below its 200-day ($63.76) — a reclaim of that line is what would confirm bullion joining the miners loses the 50-day ($56.64), leaving the week a miner-only move +0.8% pending Sep 11 broken
Jul 31 HAL avoid research not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day (~$36.18) before treating any bounce as more than a dead-cat pop n/a — the condition to flip constructive is the 50-day reclaim above; a fresh 52-week low confirms the derate instead +11.6% pending Sep 11 open
Jul 31 USO watch plan unavailable the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback inside a strong-up trend, not a reversal closes back below the 20-day and takes out the $126.55 support shelf +0.8% pending Sep 11 open
Jul 18 CLMT pass research RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold; reopen only on a first pullback that holds $36.99 (20-day) with volume drying up n/a — not owned; wrong if $36.99 holds on the first test and the trend resumes +7.2% +30.1% Sep 4 open
Jul 18 DK pass research reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a small refiner +53% in 30 days and +20% over its own 20-day is the gap, not the setup n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong (and will be scored wrong) if that base forms and the resumption runs without us -0.1% +15.6% Sep 4 open
Jul 18 MPC watch research the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the 20-day ($272.00) after the Aug 4 print validates Q2 margins — at +15% above the 20-day, buying today buys the gap a close below the 50-day ($261.52) breaks the momentum regime and the lane read resets +9.5% +48.8% Aug 21 open
Jul 18 PANW watch research the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year); first pullback that holds the 20-day ($327.50) after this +10% week a close below the 50-day ($283.88) breaks the momentum regime for the lane's leader +3.6% -4.8% Sep 4 broken
Jul 18 S watch research the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from its high); after this week's +9.5% the entry is the first pullback that HOLDS the 20-day ($17.39) — chasing 12.5% above it buys the gap a close below the 50-day ($16.85) — the 20 and 50 sit close together here, so a failed hold resolves the read fast +8.0% +8.0% Sep 10 broken
Jul 17 CCJ watch research washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the 50-day (~$105) reclaim is the confirmation, not the entry the $84 shelf fails — then the fuel-cycle unwind has further to run +11.2% -6.6% Sep 15 broken
Jul 17 LEU watch research only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the stock is in a −68%-from-high collapse; a 50-day (~$177) reclaim after a multi-week base is the earliest signal worth acting on HALEU contract flow stalls, or the base never forms and lower lows continue +14.0% -22.4% Oct 1 broken
Jul 9 CBRS watch research a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and resolves the debut range up — the first clean post-debut base signal, not the open a finish under the flush low ($160.81) — no base; the debut air pocket is still open +13.0% -15.2% Aug 31 broken
Jul 9 MSFT watch research no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base; until then this is a falling mega-cap, not a setup a finish under the June 25 low ($352.83) opens a fresh leg down and resets the whole watch +28.8% +34.4% Oct 1 in zone
Jul 9 ORCL pass research reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7% week prints off it — the bottom-pop signature the desk buys, instead of the falling edge it doesn't n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong (and will be scored wrong) if this retest of $136 holds and becomes the durable low +1.9% -3.9% Oct 1 open
Jul 8 AXTI pass research reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue inflects — a collapsed 25x parabolic with sub-$100M revenue and operating losses is a lottery aftermath, not a trend n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong if the substrate cycle produces a durable base and profitability +43.6% +35.3% Oct 1 open
Jul 8 CIFR pass research reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong if hosting revenue ramps against falling leverage -25.1% -33.6% Oct 1 open
Jul 8 CRDO buy research elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the least-damaged tape in the sweep — already flagging under its 20-day; buy the reclaim (~$255.50) a finish under the 200-day (~$160) — until then pullbacks are digestion in an intact uptrend -7.1% -19.2% Sep 15 broken
Jul 8 CRWV pass research reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while revenue keeps compounding, and a reclaimed $98–100 (the point-of-control / 200-day cluster) n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong if CRWV re-rates through $100 on improving coverage -3.0% -2.6% Oct 1 open
Jul 8 EQT watch research the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two quarters) but the tape trades below its 200-day — watch for the reclaim of the ~$55.60 cluster (50-day, 200-day, one-year VWAP) gas strip rolling over while price stays below the 200-day through the October print -2.7% -2.0% Oct 1 in zone
Jul 8 HUT pass research reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and gigawatt-scale ambitions n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong if the power-first strategy lands funding without heavy dilution -20.3% -17.6% Oct 1 open
Jul 8 OKTA pass research the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen on the first orderly pullback that holds the 50-day n/a — not owned; the pass is a timing pass, not a thesis pass -2.7% +44.5% Sep 15 open
Jul 8 WDAY watch research the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but still in a downtrend, 43% off its high — watch for a base; this is a lane signal, not yet an entry the bounce fades below the June low with the lane's 7-day breadth rolling back under 50% +26.6% +30.8% Sep 15 open
Jul 6 ZM watch research 2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92 revenue still flat through the Q3 FY27 print, or a breakdown below the $77.50 March low +16.0% +7.1% Sep 1 fading
Jul 5 STX buy research own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — Seagate's company-wide GAAP operating margin compounding 23%→32% over four consecutive quarters (fiscal Q4 2025 to Q3 2026) on AI nearline-storage demand; Seagate reports no separate nearline margin Seagate's quarterly GAAP operating margin (operating income ÷ revenue, as filed) fails to rise for two consecutive quarters, or DRAM ASP momentum turns negative (the cycle tell) -5.3% -1.0% Sep 1 open

Call record

Every desk call, oldest first, graded at 30 / 90 / 180 / 365 calendar days from publication. A cell is the excess return versus SPY, signed by stance — positive means the call was right (a buy that beat SPY, an avoid/trim/sell that lagged it). Green right, red wrong, grey pending. Watch and pass calls are logged, not scored: their cells show the raw excess versus SPY, uncoloured. The recommendation view grades every call from publication; the trade view grades only calls that named both an entry trigger and a stop, from the day the entry fired to the stop or the window's end — a dash means the call described no trade. The scoreboard reads each group as right/graded · mean signed excess; n counts every call in the group.

30d90d180d365d
Stance avoid 1 0/1 · -11.6%pendingpendingpending
Stance buy 21 10/21 · -1.3%3/11 · -8.0%pendingpending
Stance pass 29 loggedloggedloggedlogged
Stance sell 0 pendingpendingpendingpending
Stance trim 0 pendingpendingpendingpending
Stance watch 106 loggedloggedloggedlogged
Source type industry-report 11 7/11 · +2.9%pendingpendingpending
Source type weekly 11 3/11 · -6.5%3/11 · -8.0%pendingpending
Lane (none) 10 7/10 · +4.4%pendingpendingpending
Lane ai-capex-digestion 1 1/1 · +7.2%0/1 · -4.2%pendingpending
Lane ai-power-bottleneck 7 2/7 · -7.6%2/7 · -8.7%pendingpending
Lane memory-supercycle 3 0/3 · -8.3%1/3 · -7.6%pendingpending
Lane optical-supercycle 5 2/5 · -5.7%1/5 · -12.6%pendingpending
Lane physical-ai-robotics 5 2/5 · -5.7%1/5 · -12.6%pendingpending
Lane us-energy-dominance 1 0/1 · -11.6%pendingpendingpending
30d90d180d365d
Stance avoid 0 pendingpendingpendingpending
Stance buy 8 1/6 · -11.4%0/5 · -25.5%0/5 · -27.0%0/5 · -27.0%
Stance pass 29 loggedloggedloggedlogged
Stance sell 0 pendingpendingpendingpending
Stance trim 0 pendingpendingpendingpending
Stance watch 106 loggedloggedloggedlogged
Source type industry-report 1 1/1 · +2.5%pendingpendingpending
Source type weekly 7 0/5 · -14.2%0/5 · -25.5%0/5 · -27.0%0/5 · -27.0%
Lane (none) 1 1/1 · +2.5%pendingpendingpending
Lane ai-power-bottleneck 7 0/5 · -14.2%0/5 · -25.5%0/5 · -27.0%0/5 · -27.0%
Lane optical-supercycle 5 0/4 · -16.0%0/4 · -25.4%0/4 · -27.3%0/4 · -27.3%
Lane physical-ai-robotics 5 0/4 · -16.0%0/4 · -25.4%0/4 · -27.3%0/4 · -27.3%

Targets Book

Open target rows come from the calendar targets projection; subtype distinguishes entry zones, stop losses, profit targets, and desk-call tracking rows.

Level / conditionSource
Oct 22 BE entry-zone $208-$219 on a settled close back above the 200-day that holds a retest (stop: settled close below $196; first target $259) IN ZONE source
Oct 16 CIBR desk-call watch: the cybersecurity fund holds its 200-day average ($81.59 at the Oct 16 close) through a flag, then closes two sessions in a row back over its 50-day average ($100.11 at the Oct 16 close); invalidation: a close below the 200-day average, turning a pullback inside a +32.08% year into a broken trend; review by 2026-11-13 WATCH source
Oct 12 ARGX entry-zone $852-$870 on a settled close back above the 200-day that holds a retest, after the October 22 report (stop: settled close below $805; first target ~$928) APPROACHING source
Oct 9 CEG desk-call watch: a pullback that holds above the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close) while RSI cools below 55, then a settled close above $300.40 (the Oct 6 close on the Google agreement); invalidation: a settled close below the 200-day average, or a third-quarter report (expected around Nov 9, provider date) that does not confirm the Google agreement's terms; review by 2026-11-13 WATCH source
Oct 2 CF stop-loss $104 HOLDING source
Oct 2 LITE desk-call watch: a flag that holds above the 20-day average ($941.73 at the Oct 2 close) while RSI cools below 60, then a close at a new 52-week high; invalidation: a close below the 50-day ($879.03) or fiscal Q1 2027 revenue below the $1.225B guide low end at the report expected around Nov 5; review by 2026-11-06 WATCH source
Oct 2 MDT entry-zone $92-$95 APPROACHING source
Sep 25 AMZN entry-zone $242-$247 APPROACHING source
Sep 25 PLTR entry-zone $194.68-$199 IN ZONE source
Sep 23 NTRA entry-zone $343-$360 APPROACHING source
Sep 22 OKTA entry-zone $176-$184 APPROACHING source
Sep 22 ZS entry-zone $188-$198 APPROACHING source
Sep 18 DBA desk-call watch: DBA back over its 50-day ($28.24) with RSI above 50, confirmed by a positive food-at-home month in the September CPI released 2026-10-14; invalidation: loses the 200-day ($27.04) or a second flat-to-negative food-at-home month; review by 2026-10-14 WATCH source
Sep 18 MSTR desk-call watch: not this print — MSTR holds $137.04 (its 200-day) and $134.95 (the nearest support shelf) through a giveback with bitcoin above $79,138.49; invalidation: MSTR closes back under $137.04 or bitcoin loses $79,138.49; review by 2026-10-02 WATCH source
Sep 17 GNRC desk-call watch a held reclaim of the $210.05 200-day with the $203.97 50-day turning up (bounce becoming a base) vs a close back under the $198.78 volume shelf (bounce failed) — levels named by the 2026-09-17 deep dive WATCH source
Sep 17 SPCX desk-call watch a confirmed close above the $156.87 range high (base breakout) vs a close back under the $147.62 volume shelf (setup failed) — levels named by the 2026-09-17 deep dive; the lock-up supply calendar is in the body WATCH source
Sep 11 ORCL desk-call watch the $167.64 200-day reclaim (bullish) vs a $140.68 50-day loss (bearish) — the financing-test levels named by the 09-11 company profile WATCH source