🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-10-13
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1717ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
29 sources · 24 fresh · 4 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 203d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 167d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 57d |
| phynvesting | rss | 2026-09-11 | 32d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 21 TRIM verdicts (19 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 2 risk-on regime gauges • 2 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-10-13
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD/SLV ratio proxy | defensive_metal_ratio_rising | risk_off | 7.14 ratio |
| GDX/GLD miners-vs-metal | miners_lagging_metal | risk_off | 0.23 ratio |
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -7.67 30d spread pct pts |
| VIXY fear proxy | vol_compressed | risk_on | -59.6 pct from 52w high |
🟠 TRIM — 21 positions
19 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- GLD (bench-signals, -8.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -8.0%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals, -7.3%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -7.3%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -4.8%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TSLA (lag6-cal-v1, -1.8%) — All originating theses fading — Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (core70-slice3-ex30-v1, -1.4%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +1.4%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +3.7%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +4.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +4.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +6.7%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +8.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +8.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +9.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +9.3%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +9.7%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +11.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +38.7%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | yolo | +16.2% | partial-profit |
+16.2% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
| XOP | yolo | +17.4% | partial-profit |
+17.4% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +13.6% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| MU | 6 | +27.3% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, core70-slice3-ex30-v1, gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SPCX | 6 | -8.4% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, coatue-13f, greenoaks-13f, loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 11 | +9.3% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| NVDA | 7 | +13.8% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), conviction (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SNDK | 3 | +71.4% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
| AVGO | 6 | +1.4% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f... |
| DHR | 4 | +12.7% | conviction (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| TSM | 7 | +6.8% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), greenoaks-13f... |
| MSFT | 3 | +26.4% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f, conviction (tier: MEDIUM) |
| UBER | 4 | +0.7% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| META | 5 | +29.9% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), tepper-13f |
| CVS | 5 | -5.9% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader-trail (tier: LOW), yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| AMAT | 3 | +8.9% | altimeter-13f, coatue-13f, core70-slice3-ex30-v1 |
| INTC | 3 | +23.8% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | $999.00 | 72.2 | +288.2% | +37.4% | +307% |
| IOVA | $14.50 | 71.9 | +269.0% | +68.6% | +183% |
| MRNA | $216.25 | 66.3 | +220.7% | +50.2% | +190% |
| ZCSH | $32.41 | 49.0 | +153.0% | +3.0% | +140% |
| TEAM | $208.04 | 66.9 | +133.5% | +15.8% | +83% |
| CDNA | $65.43 | 64.2 | +126.2% | +30.2% | +116% |
| ASST | $27.59 | 51.9 | +122.3% | -0.1% | +73% |
| KOD | $91.63 | 71.0 | +111.8% | +178.6% | +141% |
| P | $156.97 | 82.1 | +103.8% | +59.9% | +93% |
| HTFL | $50.32 | 56.3 | +97.4% | +0.9% | +55% |
| GRAL | $140.35 | 66.4 | +91.9% | +84.1% | +86% |
| CVI | $63.12 | 81.0 | +88.0% | +27.1% | +89% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 2
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEL | $215.92 | 54 | +0.9% | -0.4% | 1.3× | VA | ai-bottlenecks, ai-infrastructure |
| UMAC | $19.44 | 36 | +2.2% | +1.1% | 1.4× | VA | drone-defense |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 1
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRAK | $67.94 | 68 | +33.9% | -0.1% | 1.5× | highs | energy |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 2
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITGR | $126.59 | 73 | +34.0% | +0.1% | 2.0× | +0.1% | healthcare, monster-discoveries |
| EFXT | $27.54 | 72 | +33.2% | +16.1% | 2.3× | +13.0% | monster-discoveries |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.