🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-10-15
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1595ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
29 sources · 25 fresh · 3 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 205d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 169d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 59d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 20 TRIM verdicts (19 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 1 risk-on regime gauges • 2 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-10-15
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD/SLV ratio proxy | defensive_metal_ratio_rising | risk_off | 7.37 ratio |
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -5.66 30d spread pct pts |
| Sector ETF relative-strength rotation | defensives_bidding | risk_off | -2.53 cyclical-minus-defensive 30d pct pts |
🟠 TRIM — 20 positions
19 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- GLD (bench-signals, -8.3%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals, -7.8%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -7.8%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -7.7%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TSLA (lag6-cal-v1, -5.2%) — All originating theses fading — Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (core70-slice3-ex30-v1, -3.5%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -2.8%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +2.9%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +2.9%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +2.9%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +3.0%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +3.0%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +3.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +4.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +5.8%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +6.5%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +7.0%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +9.5%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +34.0%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | yolo | +17.1% | partial-profit |
+17.1% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +12.0% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| MU | 6 | +24.4% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, core70-slice3-ex30-v1, gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SPCX | 6 | -13.0% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, coatue-13f, greenoaks-13f, loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 11 | +7.9% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| NVDA | 7 | +8.1% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), conviction (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SNDK | 3 | +61.3% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
| AVGO | 6 | -2.3% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f... |
| DHR | 4 | +17.1% | conviction (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| TSM | 7 | +1.3% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), greenoaks-13f... |
| MSFT | 3 | +25.5% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f, conviction (tier: MEDIUM) |
| UBER | 4 | +0.6% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| META | 5 | +25.5% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), tepper-13f |
| CVS | 5 | -0.5% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader-trail (tier: LOW), yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| INTC | 3 | +14.9% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| PANW | 3 | +49.8% | atreides-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | $907.84 | 59.6 | +296.0% | +25.1% | +256% |
| MRNA | $236.50 | 71.7 | +274.5% | +64.5% | +209% |
| IOVA | $14.72 | 71.1 | +215.9% | +57.3% | +181% |
| ZCSH | $32.84 | 50.4 | +156.6% | +8.6% | +139% |
| TEAM | $217.12 | 69.9 | +135.1% | +14.4% | +90% |
| ASST | $25.65 | 42.9 | +120.2% | -7.0% | +60% |
| KOD | $88.12 | 63.4 | +113.6% | +167.1% | +129% |
| ABCL | $12.68 | 52.2 | +105.8% | +11.1% | +98% |
| HTFL | $50.91 | 57.4 | +96.0% | +5.3% | +55% |
| P | $133.40 | 52.9 | +95.1% | +37.6% | +62% |
| RNG | $79.94 | 59.8 | +91.4% | +10.4% | +72% |
| FIGS | $19.54 | 81.3 | +89.3% | +47.1% | +51% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 8
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1888.HK | $38.28 | 34 | +1.0% | -11.6% | 1.4× | VA | ai-bottlenecks |
| ETH-USD | $2460.89 | 42 | +14.8% | -6.5% | 1.6× | VA | crypto, hard-assets |
| PTON | $5.33 | 59 | +0.8% | -3.5% | 1.5× | VA | holdings-stocks |
| CRCL | $86.97 | 53 | +1.0% | -3.0% | 1.4× | POC | financials |
| RXRX | $4.16 | 54 | +16.7% | -2.1% | 2.0× | VA | biotech-capital-cycle, biotech-scan |
| MNDY | $94.30 | 60 | +9.8% | -1.7% | 1.5× | VA | nvidia-open-agent-ecosystem |
| AWK | $133.04 | 54 | +0.9% | +0.8% | 1.6× | POC | ai-infrastructure, volume-setups |
| SHW | $336.92 | 61 | +1.1% | +1.1% | 1.4× | POC | chemicals |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 6
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VEEV | $313.03 | 74 | +53.1% | -0.6% | 1.8× | highs | ai-scan, healthcare |
| PAYC | $252.87 | 76 | +60.0% | +0.0% | 1.5× | highs | monster-discoveries |
| EBAY | $122.91 | 78 | +20.1% | -1.4% | 1.6× | highs | holdings-stocks |
| TMO | $696.49 | 67 | +27.4% | -1.1% | 1.7× | highs | bargain-bin, biotech |
| PG | $157.08 | 72 | +6.2% | -6.1% | 2.0× | breakout | consumer-staples, volume-setups |
| QYLD | $18.74 | 69 | +4.5% | -0.1% | 1.8× | highs | buffer-signals, etf-ideas |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 1
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACS | $47.75 | 72 | +38.4% | +11.4% | 2.3× | +9.2% | monster-discoveries |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.