MARKET CONTEXT: VOO $701.61 (1.21% 30D, RSI 43.7, 15.51% 1Y) | QQQM $292.26 (RSI 35) | VIXY $17.73 (RSI 59.3) | GLD $382.01 (RSI 45.5, -7.9% vs its 200-day) — settled close of 2026-10-16 (Friday)

Price truth. Every tape cell is bound to the October 16 summaries (freshest row per symbol across the summary files: 1,289 of 1,290 symbols carry a settled October 16 bar; one Helsinki line carries October 15). The two coin rows in the roundups are an afternoon intraday snapshot, not a close. Sources for this edition: the 33 scans on disk for October 16, all 11 candidate roundups (written tonight), the code-diffed regime feed for October 16 against October 15, the campaign roster, the paper books' exit-check receipts, and the October 9 edition for carry-forward. Market sections are book-blind: the Exit Alerts table is filled only from the paper books' receipts and carries no real-account row. The campaign frames in the roster were last refreshed September 6, before this week's break, so they name lanes here and set no triggers. Insider dollars are the October 9 Form 4 report (not re-run for October 16). Per-name news for most names was pulled before or around Friday's session; where a receipt predates a move, the note says so, and a move with no dated item reads "cause not checked" or "cause not on file".

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Summary

The index bent and growth broke. Over the week to Friday, October 16, the Nasdaq-100 fund returned -5.52% and the semiconductor fund -10.53%; the S&P 500 fund returned -1.97% and closed at -2.35% against its 52-week high, still 5.3% above its 200-day. Bloomberg called it the S&P 500's biggest weekly loss since June, with a spike in crude renewing inflation fears and worries about the viability of the AI trade pressuring chipmakers (October 16). The VIX closed at 19.99, up 21.5% on the day (October 16 conditions digest), after CNBC had it above 22 for the first time in four months. Brent touched $110 for the first time since May as Iran escalated its Hormuz attacks (Bloomberg and CNBC, October 16). AI credit stress reached the debt market: CoreWeave fell about 25% on the week (Bloomberg closing-bell video) with its credit-default swaps at distress levels (CNBC, October 15), and Semafor reported on October 16 that AI-infrastructure debt costs are rising, with Oracle's $160 billion of debt rated just above junk.

Money went to oil, staples, health care and the defense primes. The oil fund rose 9.15% and the energy fund 4.86%; the staples fund rose 5.02% to RSI 71.9 and the health-care fund 3.45% (market pulse scan). All 15 names on the defensive list rose, Walmart, Costco and TJX closed overbought, and Lockheed, Northrop, RTX and Elbit bounced hard, although none of the twelve defense names is back above its 200-day. Treasuries rallied (the long-bond fund 2.65%) while credit did not: the high-yield fund returned -0.48% to RSI 32.4 and all five bond and credit funds remain under their 200-days. MarketWatch described big pharma closing near records on October 15 as the tech selloff pushed investors toward safer bets.

The oversold board went from a trickle to a flood, and the intact-trend pool is now the story. Of 1,290 tracked symbols (funds and foreign lines included), 523 closed under RSI 40, 166 under 30 and 9 under 20; the October 9 edition tabled 2 names under 20 and 24 between 20 and 30. This edition tables the 9 under 20, 33 names under 30 with a year of +20% or better, and 61 names in the 30s that sit above their 200-day on years of +20% or better, plus twelve strong-year names that lost their 200-day this week. Under the horizon rule a name above its 200-day with a large positive year is a deep pullback in an intact trend: the flag after the drop is the entry, not the drop. The cushions are thin: the AI-infrastructure roundup's six names sit 1.9% to 29.6% above their 200-days, the equipment book lost its lines (only ASML and Entegris still hold theirs, WFE scan), and the neocloud lane, the focus lane, has none of its nine names with a 200-day above it (AI scan). Single-name causes for Friday's moves are mostly not on file: most news receipts were pulled before the close.

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Entry Zones (IN ZONE NOW)

Individual common stocks and partnerships with normal trade access only. Funds sit in Sector Rotation below. Leveraged and inverse funds and volatility products (LABD, TZA, DUST, VIXY) are never entry candidates and are left out. Foreign lines and OTC mirrors are research-only and never a zone. Names in the NVIDIA block get no zone. Deal-priced names (IRDM, whose price follows the Rocket Lab terms of $27 cash plus Rocket Lab stock; GSAT, on Amazon's terms) are not trend reads and are left out. Action tags: 📈 Accumulate (steady-climber tier, shallow week) / 🔍 Research (flag-watch, or a veto stands) / ⏳ Stage (strong year, under its 200-day: reclaim first) / ❌ Don't Buy (broken year or a business-quality veto). A name below its 200-day never earns 📈, and neither does a clinical-stage biotech. Notes carry the state of each name's news pull; "cause not checked" means no file opened this session ties the move to anything.

EXTREME OVERSOLD (RSI < 20) - Capitulation Territory

All nine stocks under RSI 20, none in the NVIDIA block. Three are clinical-stage names (veto), two carry business-quality vetoes (FMC, KITT) and the rest are broken charts; none is an intact-trend dip.

OVERSOLD (RSI 20-30) - Strong Entry Zone

Tabled: every stock in this band with a one-year gain of +20% or better (33 names; IRDM left out as deal-priced). Under their 200-days almost without exception, so the tag is ⏳ Stage or a veto, never 📈. Memory, equipment and clinical-biotech names dominate.

Also in the 20-30 band, not tabled (93 names; a one-year change under +20%, negative or missing, almost all under their 200-days: damage, not discount, ❌ Don't Buy or 🔍 Research): AEVA, AIRJ, ALB, ALK, ALM, ALMU, ALT, AMPX, AOSL, APLD, APO, ARBE, ARQQ, ASPI, ASTS, ATOM, AVAV, BAC, BIDU, BKD, BKKT, BRUN, BTDR, BYND, CBRS, CC, CELC, CEPL, CIFR, CLDX, CLSK, CRWV, CW, DGXX, DPRO, DRNZ, DYN, EOSE, FLNC, FLNG, FTCI, GLXY, HIVE, HLSQ, HROW, HSAI, IMNM, INFQ, IPWR, IREN, JOBY, KEEL, KOPN, KULR, LAES, LASR, LCID, LFMD, MAN, MARA, MOD, MOS, MS, MVIS, NBTX, NKTR, NVTS, OKLO, ONDS, OUST, PLUG, POET, QBTS, QUBT, RCAT, REA, RGTI, RIOT, RIVN, RKLB, RYTM, SCHW, SERV, SMR, SOUN, TE, TMC, USAR, UUUU, VRT, WYFI, XE, XNDU.

Exceptions worth naming in that list: MAN (ManpowerGroup) is the one name above its 200-day (6.1%, RSI 20.1) and fell 15.82% on October 15 after matching consensus EPS (October 15 brief; no source ties the drop to the print), with a CEO change announced the same day; the big banks and managers BAC, MS, SCHW and APO sit -7.2%, -7.1%, -6.3% and -11.4% against their 200-days after Bloomberg's October 16 report of the big banks' worst weekly losing streak since 2008 (BAC also fell 4.76% on October 14 on a trading-revenue miss and a $1.2 billion Treasury fine, CNBC); VRT (Vertiv) is -23.1% against its line on a 16.08% year. Fertilizer and farm names rebounded in the same week (CF 8.35%, NTR 5.6%), but MOS stays in this list.

The focus-lane neoclouds sit in that list on negative years: CRWV, IREN, CIFR, APLD, GLXY (plus HUT and NBIS in the next table on positive years). Bloomberg's October 16 closing-bell video put CoreWeave down about 25% on the week; none is a base.

APPROACHING OVERSOLD (RSI 30-40) - Watch Closely

Tabled: (a) the 61 stocks above their 200-day with a one-year gain of +20% or better (the intact-trend pool; 🔍 Research for the flag, 📈 only in the steady-climber tier, vetoes stand) and (b) twelve strong-year names that lost their 200-day this week and sit on the focus lanes or in the scans' watch lists (⏳ Stage). Sorted by RSI.

Also in the 30-40 band under their 200-days on strong years (+20% or better), not tabled (53 names; ⏳ Stage, reclaim first): AAOI, ACLS, AEIS, AMKR, AROC, ATEN, AXTI, BHE, BWA, C, CALY, COGT, CRDO, DIOD, ECG, ENS, EQIX, ERAS, ESTA, FCEL, FIX, FORM, GLW, HBM, HIMX, HYMC, JBL, KLIC, LBRT, LFUS, LION, LQDA, LSCC, MTSI, MYRG, NOK, NOVT, NVT, OPTX, POWL, RIO, SANM, SKM, ST, STM, TKR, TSEM, TTMI, VECO, VIAV, VPG, VSAT, VSH.

Also in the 30-40 band, not tabled: 88 names under their 200-day on negative or flat years (damage, not discount) and 45 on weak or thin years (above the 200-day with a year under +20%, or under it with a year between 0 and +20%). Every foreign line and OTC mirror in the band is research-only.

Carried names that left the oversold bands since October 9 (RSI back above 40 at the October 16 close): the consumer and housing washouts bounced further (Nike, Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald's, PepsiCo; bargain-bin and consumer scans), and the telecom group bounced after the SpaceX spectrum shock (VZ, T, TMUS, BCE), all still under their 200-days. None repaired a long trend. Jazz and Axsome stay on the table above, now under their lines.

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Price Alerts (Waiting for Entry)

Triggered since last edition (reported once, not carried): XOM closed above its $169.64 base-breakout level at $178.98 (18% above its 200-day, RSI 73): triggered and already extended. MDT closed above the $94.17 profile entry trigger at $94.75 (RSI 64.1), inside the $92-$95 zone; the levels are those carried in the October 9 edition and the profile was not re-read this session. Resolved against: AVGO's 200-day test failed (-10.7% under, one-year change -7.17%). Resolved: TEAM's extension cooled (RSI 60.8). Dropped by rule: the NVDA pivot-reclaim row (no action rows for the NVIDIA block).

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Exit Alerts (Holdings)

Real-account exits are not part of this digest. Filled only from tonight's exit-check receipts for the paper books (eleven books checked; the receipts do not print entry prices or set dates, so those cells read "—"; P&L is the receipt's own figure, rounded). Eight books hold nothing today. The "perspective-fading" TRIM flags cite originating campaigns that are already closed; they ask for a review, not a sale. No book printed a SELL, and no book breaker is tripped (every book with a breaker line reads clear).

Deepest HOLD rows with no rule hit: TTD −11.4% and BG −10.9% (bench-signals). Books with no open positions today: degen, dip-buyer, mention-scalper, momentum-trader, short-seller, swing-kid, value-vulture, yolo-insider-probe.

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Sector Rotation Signals

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Regime Transitions

Source: the code-diffed transitions feed for 2026-10-16 against 2026-10-15 (data date current, not stale): 93 items, 77 after dropping 16 universe-churn rows with no prior state (a symbol entering the feed, not a regime change); 11 of the 77 are flagged inert. Current state counts across 1,290 symbols: 388 pullback, 282 collapse, 199 basing, 190 uptrend, 184 downtrend, 32 too-young, 13 breakout, 2 parabolic. The feed also lists a pattern-transition group; the price-state diff is what is tabled.

Nine rated names crossed down: Amazon, Cloudflare, Unity and Freeport (all rated intact) eased from uptrend to pullback, and Dell (intact-but-priced) too; Ciena and Ouster (intact-but-priced) slid pullback to downtrend, and Rigetti and SoFi slid further into collapse (inert). The rest, by state pair: uptrend to pullback 22 in total, pullback to downtrend 14, pullback to collapse 11, downtrend to collapse 7 (all inert), collapse to downtrend 4 (inert: HYMC, MAZE, NOC and a leveraged fund), uptrend to basing 3, breakout to basing 3 (three buffer funds), basing to pullback 2, downtrend to pullback 2, parabolic to pullback 2 (KOD, PENG), pullback to uptrend 2 (REGN, UNH), basing to downtrend 2, pullback to basing 1, basing to uptrend 1 and breakout to uptrend 1. Downward crossings outnumber upward ones about seven to one, in line with the chip, cloud and equipment break.

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Insider Activity Summary

Dollar figures are the October 9 Form 4 net-flow report; it was not re-run for October 16, so every figure may have moved. The report prints net dollars only (no names, roles or dates) and sizes only its top 20 sellers.

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Pending Research Actions

Closed from last edition: XLF's bank-report question (held), MDB's 200-day hold (lost, now a price alert), the bond-rout question after September CPI (answered: Treasuries rallied, credit did not), Delta's 8-K question (superseded by the airline break).

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The Gold

Top Signal

Growth broke on credit and rates, and the intact-trend pool is long. The week's damage moved from chips to software, security, memory, equipment, optical and the neocloud stack, with dated context in Bloomberg's worst-week-since-June report, CNBC's global hardware rout and the CoreWeave credit-default-swap reports. Record results did not hold the lane up (ASML on October 14, TSMC on October 15). Oil at $110 and a hot September CPI and PPI keep the Fed meeting on October 28 live. For the trend-hold lens, 61 stocks in the 30s RSI band are above their 200-days on years of +20% or better: the setup is the flag after the drop, and the lines to hold are the 200-days, which are 1.9% to 4.4% away for Arm, Amazon and TSMC and 22% to 58% away for the security and data-software group. Memory, drive makers and equipment have already lost them: those are Stage rows, not entries. Everything else oversold is damage below the 200-day.

Key Discoveries

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Sourced from the 33 scans on disk for October 16 (ai-infrastructure, ai-scan, airlines, bargain-bin, biotech-scan, chemicals, cloud-etfs, consumer-scan, crypto-scan, cultural-thesis, cybersec, defense-contractors, defensive-scan, drone-defense, etf-universe, ev-clean-energy, food-security, geopolitical-risk, healthcare-scan, insider-scan, lazarus-scan, macro-commodities, market-pulse, monster-scan, nvda-ecosystem, optical-supply-chain, retail-scan, scan-monster-etf-v2 (context only: a leveraged-fund list), supply-chain-traces, tech-insider-buys, travel-leisure, washout-scan, wfe-test-metrology), all 11 candidate roundups (ai-infra, biotech, cloud-saas, consumer, crypto, energy, mag7, memory, retail, space, web-cloud), the October 16 regime-transitions diff, the paper books' exit-check receipts, October 12-16 news captures and filing notices, and per-name news receipts. Every tape figure is bound to the October 16 summaries.

Sources

• Price, momentum, trend and long-horizon truth: research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json (October 16 settled close; 1,290 symbols in the freshest-row index, 1,289 dated October 16 and one Helsinki line dated October 15; coin rows are an October 16 intraday snapshot) — every tape cell is bound at render time.
• Scan corpus: research/scans/2026-10-16-*.md (33 files listed above). Candidate roundups: research/candidates/2026-10-16-*.md (11 files, written for this edition).
• Regime transitions: deno task market -- regimes:feed --json, read this session (2026-10-16 vs 2026-10-15; data date current).
• Campaign roster: deno task research:campaign list and research/perspectives/ACTIVE.json, read this session. The campaign registry's last reviews run to 2026-10-14 (energy-to-humanitarian-transmission) and none is due by date; the legacy ACTIVE.json file was last refreshed 2026-09-06.
• Exit-check receipts (paper books only): the eleven text receipts for bench-signals, claude-trader, degen, dip-buyer, mention-scalper, momentum-trader, short-seller, swing-kid, value-vulture, yolo-insider-probe and yolo, read from the session scratchpad.
• Prior digest for carry-forward: research/issues/2026-10-09-actions-daily-digest.md. Company-profile levels (CF, NTR, MDT, AA, LOW) are carried from that edition; the profiles were not re-read.
• Market briefs: research/issues/2026-10-12-market-brief.md through 2026-10-15-market-brief.md; October 16 market-conditions digest research/issues/2026-10-16-market-conditions.md; Iridium deal terms from research/issues/2026-09-25-rocket-sector-space-tpus.md.
• Stock events: research/stock-events/2026-10-17 through 2026-11-14 earnings files, checked per tabled name (report dates are provider dates unless noted).
• News receipts: research/market-engine/data/stocks/<SYM>/news/latest.json, fetch dates stated in each note; a failed pull (HTTP 429) is stated as a failed pull, never as no news. Several tabled names have no receipt on disk (BLDP, TRT, FLEX and others; stated in their rows), and some receipts are months old (stated as such).
• Bloomberg, October 16, 2026: S&P 500 suffers worst week since June as AI fears hit chipmakers — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/s-p-500-steady-as-warsh-boosts-expectations-of-rate-hold
• Bloomberg, October 16, 2026: Wall Street anxiety spreads as AI rout meets $110 oil shock — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/wall-street-anxiety-spreads-as-ai-rout-meets-110-oil-shock
• Bloomberg, October 16, 2026: CoreWeave slides 25% for the week as AI credit concerns grow (closing bell video) — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-10-16/coreweave-slides-on-ai-fears-closing-bell-video
• Bloomberg, October 16, 2026: Brent oil taps $110 for first time since May — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/oil-tops-110-for-first-time-since-may-as-supply-risk-grows; CNBC, October 16, 2026: Brent oil touches $110 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/oil-price-today-iran-strait-hormuz-ukraine-russia.html
• Bloomberg, October 16, 2026: Big US bank stocks log worst weekly losing streak since 2008 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/big-us-bank-shares-set-for-worst-weekly-losing-streak-since-2008
• CNBC, October 16, 2026: Wall Street's fear gauge is ripping — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/wall-streets-fear-gauge-is-ripping-traders-see-it-going-even-higher.html; CNBC, October 16: Why did CoreWeave stock get crushed this week — https://www.cnbc.com/investingclub/2026/10/16/coreweave-credit-default-swaps.html
• CNBC, October 15, 2026: Nvidia, AMD, Dell sink in global tech rout on AI funding worries — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/sk-hynix-samsung-softbank-stocks-asia-tech-rout-ai-funding-worries.html; CNBC, October 15: Memory stocks are getting hammered — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/memory-stocks-micron-sk-hynix-samsung-china.html
• CNBC, October 13, 2026: Micron, Seagate, Western Digital sink as chip sell-off deepens — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/sk-hynix-softbank-samsung-electronics-shares-tech-stocks-fall.html; CNBC, October 14: Dell stock plunges 11% — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/dell-stock-barclays-enterprise-ai.html
• Semafor, October 16, 2026: AI infrastructure debt costs soar amid investor concerns — https://www.semafor.com/article/10/16/2026/ai-infrastructure-debt-costs-soar-amid-investor-concerns
• MarketWatch, October 15, 2026: Big pharma stocks close near all-time highs as tech selloff pushes investors toward safer bets — https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-pharma-stocks-near-all-time-highs-as-tech-selloff-pushes-investors-toward-safer-bets-0a5d5d07
• Bloomberg, October 13, 2026: AI selloff drags emerging stocks down — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-13/ai-selloff-drags-emerging-stocks-down-weighs-on-currency-gauge; Bloomberg, October 14: Gold rallies as lower yields, AI stock selloff fuel haven demand — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-14/gold-holds-loss-as-hot-inflation-lifts-october-rate-hike-bets
• TSMC, third-quarter 2026 results — https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3; Weiss Ratings on DigitalOcean (aggregator) — https://weissratings.com/en/instant-news-alerts/digitalocean-holdings-inc-docn-down-12-8-time-to-bail
• Iridium, stockholders approve acquisition by Rocket Lab, September 24 — https://investor.iridium.com/2026-09-24-Iridium-Stockholders-Approve-Acquisition-by-Rocket-Lab
• Filing notices (bodies unread): Jazz 8-K filed 2026-10-09 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232524/000162828026065497/jazz-20261006.htm; MU, MRVL, PLTR, CRWD, WMT, CRSP, HOOD Form 4 stubs and the Riot, Strategy, Rocket Lab, Costco and Silicon Motion 8-K and 6-K stubs under research/capture/filings/2026-10-1[2-6]-*.