🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-10-16
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1696ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
29 sources · 25 fresh · 3 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 206d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 170d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 60d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 18 TRIM verdicts (17 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 1 risk-on regime gauges • 3 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-10-16
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD/SLV ratio proxy | defensive_metal_ratio_rising | risk_off | 7.42 ratio |
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -4.31 30d spread pct pts |
| Broad-market ETF breadth | breadth_deteriorating | risk_off | 20 pct above SMA50 |
| Sector ETF relative-strength rotation | defensives_bidding | risk_off | -3.19 cyclical-minus-defensive 30d pct pts |
🟠 TRIM — 18 positions
17 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- GLD (bench-signals, -8.4%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -7.9%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals, -6.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -6.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -2.8%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +1.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +1.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +1.4%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +1.4%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +2.3%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +2.3%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +2.7%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +4.3%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +4.7%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +7.4%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +7.5%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +29.0%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP | yolo | +17.8% | partial-profit |
+17.8% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +9.9% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| MU | 6 | +17.4% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, core70-slice3-ex30-v1, gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SPCX | 6 | -14.5% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, coatue-13f, greenoaks-13f, loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 11 | +5.2% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| NVDA | 7 | +6.6% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), conviction (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SNDK | 3 | +50.3% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
| DHR | 4 | +15.8% | conviction (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| TSM | 7 | -1.0% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), greenoaks-13f... |
| AVGO | 5 | -5.5% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f, yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| MSFT | 3 | +23.1% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f, conviction (tier: MEDIUM) |
| UBER | 4 | -0.7% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| META | 5 | +20.8% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), tepper-13f |
| CVS | 5 | -0.7% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader-trail (tier: LOW), yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| INTC | 3 | +8.2% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| PANW | 3 | +38.3% | atreides-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | $898.97 | 58.6 | +294.9% | +14.3% | +247% |
| MRNA | $218.01 | 61.7 | +252.7% | +49.7% | +182% |
| IOVA | $13.62 | 59.9 | +172.4% | +38.0% | +157% |
| ZCSH | $30.53 | 45.3 | +140.2% | -11.5% | +121% |
| TEAM | $207.82 | 60.8 | +122.8% | +9.2% | +82% |
| KOD | $85.75 | 60.9 | +101.1% | +161.7% | +121% |
| RNG | $75.44 | 50.1 | +82.6% | +2.6% | +62% |
| P | $124.01 | 45.6 | +78.7% | +27.1% | +50% |
| VIA | $31.93 | 59.8 | +77.8% | +19.9% | +55% |
| XP | $29.23 | 67.8 | +75.3% | +47.9% | +55% |
| CVI | $61.42 | 73.3 | +74.8% | +15.8% | +81% |
| PAYC | $251.64 | 73.7 | +70.1% | +10.6% | +59% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 7
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | $136.83 | 43 | +0.9% | -6.0% | 1.4× | POC | crypto, hard-assets |
| BAND | $43.34 | 34 | +9.9% | -4.6% | 1.3× | VA | monster-discoveries |
| XRT | $87.02 | 65 | +1.6% | +2.4% | 2.0× | POC | market-pulse, retail |
| AI | $11.32 | 53 | +11.8% | +0.3% | 1.9× | VA | ai-scan |
| AES | $14.95 | 63 | +1.4% | +2.6% | 1.4× | POC | electricity, thebuildout-renewable-energy-hyperscaler-ppas |
| ROK | $426.23 | 44 | +0.1% | +2.7% | 1.8× | VA | ai-bottlenecks, robotics |
| GRND | $14.09 | 41 | +3.5% | +3.0% | 1.4× | VA | monster-discoveries |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 3
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVTR | $16.42 | 68 | +49.9% | -0.2% | 3.5× | highs | biotech-capital-cycle |
| EOG | $158.01 | 70 | +17.6% | -0.2% | 1.7× | highs | geopolitical |
| CNQ | $53.80 | 72 | +19.9% | -0.2% | 1.5× | highs | monster-discoveries |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.