🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-10-21
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1637ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
29 sources · 23 fresh · 5 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 211d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 175d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 65d |
| nuttycld | rss | 2026-10-13 | 8d |
| viksnewsletter | rss | 2026-10-13 | 8d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 18 TRIM verdicts (17 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 1 risk-on regime gauges • 2 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-10-21
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD/SLV ratio proxy | defensive_metal_ratio_rising | risk_off | 7.25 ratio |
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -6.42 30d spread pct pts |
| Sector ETF relative-strength rotation | defensives_bidding | risk_off | -4.5 cyclical-minus-defensive 30d pct pts |
🟠 TRIM — 18 positions
17 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- GLD (bench-signals, -9.2%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -8.6%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals, -7.0%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -7.0%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -2.5%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +1.4%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +5.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +5.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +6.0%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +6.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +6.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +6.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +6.5%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +6.6%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +8.6%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +12.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +26.8%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP | yolo | +16.9% | partial-profit |
+16.9% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +15.3% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| MU | 6 | +22.0% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, core70-slice3-ex30-v1, gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SPCX | 6 | -6.8% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, coatue-13f, greenoaks-13f, loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 11 | +3.4% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| NVDA | 7 | +10.5% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), conviction (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SNDK | 3 | +59.4% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
| DHR | 4 | +18.3% | conviction (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| TSM | 7 | +3.6% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), greenoaks-13f... |
| AVGO | 5 | -2.9% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f, yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| MSFT | 3 | +24.0% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f, conviction (tier: MEDIUM) |
| UBER | 4 | -4.5% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| META | 5 | +18.8% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), tepper-13f |
| CVS | 5 | +0.5% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader-trail (tier: LOW), yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| INTC | 3 | +12.0% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| PANW | 3 | +40.5% | atreides-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | $245.81 | 69.1 | +323.3% | +42.1% | +205% |
| BWET | $799.96 | 47.7 | +236.1% | -4.1% | +195% |
| ZCSH | $36.28 | 57.9 | +213.0% | -7.7% | +156% |
| IOVA | $14.62 | 64.2 | +182.8% | +43.5% | +167% |
| TEAM | $225.51 | 69.5 | +164.1% | +15.3% | +95% |
| ASST | $30.75 | 63.0 | +142.7% | +1.4% | +90% |
| HTFL | $55.82 | 65.6 | +130.4% | +10.9% | +68% |
| RNG | $82.42 | 61.1 | +118.8% | +6.6% | +74% |
| APPN | $48.73 | 71.5 | +115.2% | +26.2% | +72% |
| ABCL | $12.24 | 49.1 | +113.6% | -3.3% | +87% |
| CAI | $32.35 | 63.1 | +110.3% | +5.5% | +52% |
| KOD | $87.72 | 59.8 | +109.3% | +170.6% | +120% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 6
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHKP | $143.43 | 64 | +0.9% | -3.8% | 1.8× | VA | nvidia-open-agent-ecosystem |
| COF | $206.66 | 59 | +2.0% | +0.2% | 1.7× | POC | financials |
| TAC | $13.34 | 63 | +3.3% | +0.4% | 1.4× | VA | ai-infra, ai-scan |
| CRCL | $89.71 | 56 | +4.2% | +0.6% | 1.4× | VA | financials |
| NP | $28.39 | 44 | +3.6% | +2.6% | 1.9× | POC | monster-discoveries |
| DBA | $28.12 | 42 | +3.0% | +2.3% | 1.4× | VA | food-security, macro-commodities |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 4
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRL | $344.87 | 76 | +59.0% | -1.2% | 2.8× | highs | biotech-capital-cycle |
| HLT | $362.25 | 80 | +13.6% | -0.6% | 1.6× | highs | travel-leisure |
| SAP | $232.73 | 76 | +21.3% | -17.3% | 2.0× | breakout | bargain-bin, cloud-etf-holdings |
| DHR | $233.86 | 65 | +16.2% | -3.7% | 1.9× | highs | biotech-capital-cycle, biotech-scan |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 4
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRZE | $45.68 | 84 | +70.0% | +58.1% | 3.8× | +61.7% | monster-discoveries |
| CRL | $344.87 | 76 | +64.8% | +14.3% | 2.8× | +14.2% | biotech-capital-cycle |
| APPN (also in monsters — extension + churn) | $48.73 | 72 | +63.4% | +24.6% | 2.0× | +26.7% | monster-discoveries |
| SAP | $232.73 | 76 | +18.8% | +7.8% | 2.0× | +5.5% | bargain-bin, cloud-etf-holdings |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.