🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-10-22
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1571ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
29 sources · 24 fresh · 4 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 212d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 176d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 66d |
| nuttycld | rss | 2026-10-13 | 9d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 17 TRIM verdicts (16 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 1 risk-on regime gauges • 3 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-10-22
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD/SLV ratio proxy | defensive_metal_ratio_rising | risk_off | 7.48 ratio |
| GDX/GLD miners-vs-metal | miners_lagging_metal | risk_off | 0.22 ratio |
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -9.24 30d spread pct pts |
| Sector ETF relative-strength rotation | defensives_bidding | risk_off | -7.89 cyclical-minus-defensive 30d pct pts |
🟠 TRIM — 17 positions
16 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- GLD (bench-signals, -11.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -11.0%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals, -5.1%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -5.1%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -0.7%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +0.5%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +0.5%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +1.3%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +1.3%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +1.4%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +1.6%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +1.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +3.5%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +4.8%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +7.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +10.6%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP | yolo | +15.7% | partial-profit |
+15.7% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +10.0% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| MU | 6 | +14.4% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, core70-slice3-ex30-v1, gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SPCX | 6 | -15.3% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, coatue-13f, greenoaks-13f, loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 11 | +0.2% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| NVDA | 7 | +5.6% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), conviction (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SNDK | 3 | +45.8% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
| DHR | 4 | +16.2% | conviction (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| TSM | 7 | -1.1% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), greenoaks-13f... |
| AVGO | 5 | -7.1% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f, yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| MSFT | 3 | +21.2% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f, conviction (tier: MEDIUM) |
| UBER | 4 | -2.5% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| CVS | 5 | +1.6% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader-trail (tier: LOW), yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| META | 4 | +8.7% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, tepper-13f |
| INTC | 3 | +3.0% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| PANW | 3 | +43.6% | atreides-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | $895.91 | 56.9 | +261.6% | +31.4% | +225% |
| MRNA | $202.63 | 51.0 | +255.4% | +11.0% | +149% |
| ZCSH | $32.42 | 49.7 | +185.4% | -20.2% | +127% |
| TEAM | $223.16 | 67.2 | +178.4% | +18.3% | +93% |
| IOVA | $14.14 | 59.8 | +175.6% | +32.9% | +156% |
| ASST | $29.03 | 56.3 | +140.1% | -1.1% | +79% |
| APPN | $51.15 | 74.4 | +132.9% | +38.6% | +80% |
| HTFL | $55.43 | 64.3 | +125.2% | +10.5% | +66% |
| FIGS | $20.46 | 80.9 | +121.4% | +58.0% | +55% |
| BRZE | $45.86 | 84.2 | +116.1% | +79.7% | +90% |
| KOD | $85.78 | 57.8 | +109.1% | +153.8% | +114% |
| VIA | $35.71 | 71.5 | +109.1% | +25.9% | +72% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 8
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAND | $40.50 | 34 | +1.2% | -11.0% | 1.7× | VA | monster-discoveries |
| QCOM | $172.83 | 45 | +2.1% | -2.6% | 1.5× | POC | ai-bottlenecks, ai-scan |
| COF | $203.43 | 53 | +0.5% | -1.4% | 1.4× | POC | financials |
| META | $648.85 | 37 | +2.6% | +1.7% | 2.1× | POC | ai-scan, bargain-bin |
| MXL | $65.28 | 37 | +11.7% | -0.0% | 1.6× | VA | ai-bottlenecks, optical-supply-chain |
| DBA | $27.92 | 37 | +2.2% | +1.5% | 3.1× | VA | food-security, macro-commodities |
| IGPT | $87.27 | 30 | +5.7% | +0.2% | 1.6× | VA | etf-ideas |
| XYLD | $41.30 | 38 | +1.3% | +2.0% | 1.3× | POC | etf-ideas |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 7
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | $165.59 | 75 | +11.6% | -1.0% | 2.4× | highs | consumer-staples, volume-setups |
| TNET | $74.62 | 70 | +40.3% | -0.2% | 1.5× | highs | monster-discoveries |
| BIIB | $253.84 | 75 | +27.5% | -0.2% | 1.8× | highs | biotech-scan, healthcare |
| ROKU | $160.06 | 72 | +26.7% | -0.0% | 2.9× | highs | adtech |
| SAP | $240.59 | 81 | +25.4% | -14.5% | 2.3× | breakout | bargain-bin, cloud-etf-holdings |
| XLP | $89.99 | 74 | +6.9% | -0.2% | 1.8× | highs | consumer-staples, defensive |
| NOW | $157.00 | 69 | +36.4% | -18.6% | 1.6× | breakout | ai-scan, bargain-bin |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 8
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APPN (also in monsters — extension + churn) | $51.15 | 74 | +70.6% | +28.5% | 2.0× | +16.7% | monster-discoveries |
| CRL | $339.66 | 71 | +61.0% | +11.7% | 2.6× | +10.9% | biotech-capital-cycle |
| HALO | $124.54 | 73 | +54.6% | +8.7% | 2.2× | +2.5% | monster-discoveries |
| KSS | $24.78 | 79 | +42.3% | +21.5% | 2.1× | +10.6% | monster-discoveries |
| ROKU | $160.06 | 72 | +33.1% | +4.1% | 2.9× | +3.5% | adtech |
| SAP | $240.59 | 81 | +22.7% | +10.6% | 2.3× | +6.9% | bargain-bin, cloud-etf-holdings |
| MAR | $396.80 | 73 | +16.4% | +7.0% | 2.0× | +2.9% | travel-leisure |
| PG | $165.59 | 75 | +11.8% | +8.9% | 2.4× | +5.4% | consumer-staples, volume-setups |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
Related
2 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.