Bargain Bin Scan
Bargain Bin Scan
Three stocks pass the strict filter after two empty weeks: Lam Research (RSI 24.6), KLA (23.3) and Caterpillar (26.7) closed under RSI 30 and under their 20-day averages after weekly drops of 12.82%, 12.15% and 5.99%. All three still carry positive one-year returns (up 55.96%, 25.63% and 31.99%) but now sit 15% to 20% under their 200-day averages, so their long trends are under test, not intact. MarketWatch named Lam's weaker-than-expected forecast as one of three reasons chip stocks fell hard Thursday. Behind them, eleven names sit between RSI 30 and 40; Arista, Nvidia and AMD are the ones that still hold their 200-days.
Prices are the settled Friday, October 23 close from the price summaries; all 45 rows carry that date. Comparisons to the October 16 scan are direction-only and use that edition's printed readings.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Three strict hits, all semicap or industrial and all through their 200-days; the intact pullbacks sit one tier behind them |
| Strict hits (RSI under 30, under 20-day) | 3 — LRCX (RSI 24.6), KLAC (RSI 23.3), CAT (RSI 26.7) |
| Top-ranked (quality x discount) | LRCX — -23.3% vs its 20-day, -18.8% vs its 200-day, 55.96% 1Y, -47.53% from its 52-week high |
| Closest misses (RSI 30-40, under 20-day) | GOOGL, ANET, AVGO, ASML, META, NFLX, BKNG, NVDA, UBER, AMD, ORCL — eleven names; five are new to the band |
| Quality dips (under 20-day, at or above 200-day, RSI 40+) | MRVL, AMZN, DE, QCOM, MSFT |
| Broken-thesis override | INTU — thesis flagged broken (-49.33% 1Y, -6.6% vs its 200-day) despite 5.61% on the week; excluded from ranking |
| Breadth | 22 of 45 names sit below their 200-days (24 on October 16); 20 of 45 are under their 20-days (20) |
| Caveat | Cheap versus recent price history only; no valuation, earnings-quality or insider data in this source. Quality is judged from long-trend position and the thesis flag, not fundamentals. A positive one-year return under a lost 200-day is a long trend under test; outside verification of each business is required before acting |
| Key insight | The strict list is exactly where last week's near-misses went. The names that kept their 200-days (Arista, Nvidia, AMD) are one tier up, at RSI 33 to 39, and the consumer bounce faded on Friday |
What's Going On
The strict list fills from the semicap end. Lam Research closed $230.10, down 12.82% on the week and 25.12% over 30 days, RSI 24.6, 23.3% under its 20-day and 18.8% under its 200-day ($283.43), with a one-year gain of 55.96% and 47.53% under its 52-week high. It reported on October 21 after the close: EPS $2.20 against an analyst consensus of $2.18 (up 0.9%, per the earnings calendar). MarketWatch (October 22) cited Lam's weaker-than-expected forecast, Tesla's lower spending target and a reminder that the AI boom relies on outside funding as three reasons chip stocks fell hard Thursday — the press's stated reasons, not a measured attribution. KLA closed $145.61 (down 12.15%, RSI 23.3, the lowest on the board), 19.8% under its 200-day ($181.64) with a one-year gain of 25.63%; no source on disk ties its drop to a specific event, so its cause is the same-week chip selloff only. Caterpillar closed $687.00 (down 5.99%; Friday down 2.42%), RSI 26.7, 15.0% under its 200-day ($808.62), one-year gain 31.99%; its news pull on file predates the week's move (October 19, Pacific), so no cause is established. Caterpillar's earnings are scheduled for October 29 before the open (earnings calendar).
The intact pullbacks are one tier behind. Arista closed $172.37 (RSI 33.7), 5.2% above its 200-day ($163.77) with a one-year gain of 12.84%; Nvidia $210.96 (RSI 38.1), 3.6% above its 200-day ($203.67), one-year gain 15.81%, thesis flag intact; AMD $516.79 (RSI 39.0), 28.5% above its 200-day, one-year gain 119.92%. ASML ($1,571.80, RSI 35.2) is 1.0% under its 200-day with a one-year gain of 51.66%. Marvell left the band: RSI 41.1, up 0.3% on the week, 27.3% above its 200-day and now a quality dip.
New entrants to the band: Alphabet, Meta, Netflix, Booking and Uber. Alphabet (RSI 31.3, down 5.98%) is 6.2% under its 200-day ($341.31) with a one-year gain of 26.53% and an intact thesis flag. Meta (RSI 35.7) fell 9.4% on the week to $642.62, 1.6% above its 200-day ($632.53) but with a one-year loss of 12.45%; CNBC (October 23) called it Meta's worst week in four years, and the company reported October 21. Netflix (RSI 37.1), Booking (37.8) and Uber (38.6) are 20.0%, 12.7% and 9.7% under their 200-days with one-year losses of 40.87%, 23.52% and 29.5%. Cause not established for these four.
Where tape and thesis flag disagree. Oracle (RSI 39.1) is 20.4% under its 200-day with a one-year loss of 54.95%, though its flag reads intact. Broadcom (RSI 34.2) is 12.5% under its 200-day with a one-year loss of 6.57%, flag also intact. Lowe's is flagged intact at 12.7% under its 200-day and a one-year loss of 18.53%. Intuit rose 5.61% on the week to RSI 64.0 but stays 6.6% under its 200-day with a one-year loss of 49.33%, flagged broken.
Friday's consumer weakness. Retail ended the session with all 22 names down (median down 2.3%) and consumer staples all 10 down (median down 2.2%), per the desk's October 23 lane tape. In this universe Lululemon fell 4.85%, Lowe's 2.78%, Nike 2.66%, Home Depot 2.41% and PepsiCo 2.2% on Friday. Cause unknown: the 77 article captures from October 23 were searched for these names and returned no item explaining the move (a CNBC restaurant-earnings preview, which discusses McDonald's, is not one), and no per-name news was pulled for these names.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-10-16 → 2026-10-23)
- Strict hits: 0 to 3. LRCX (30.3 to 24.6), KLAC (31 to 23.3) and CAT (30.7 to 26.7) crossed under 30. Two of them, LRCX and KLAC, are under 25 — last week's edition had nothing in that band
- Their 200-day gaps widened — LRCX from 6.4% under to 18.8%; KLAC from 8.4% to 19.8%; CAT from 9.3% to 15.0%
- The near-miss list turned over. October 16: LRCX, CAT, KLAC, ANET, AVGO, NVDA, MRVL, ASML, AMD, ORCL. Now GOOGL, ANET, AVGO, ASML, META, NFLX, BKNG, NVDA, UBER, AMD, ORCL. New: GOOGL, META, NFLX, BKNG, UBER. Gone: the three strict hits and MRVL (RSI 37.5 to 41.1)
- GOOGL slid further under its 200-day — from 0.1% under to 6.2% under. META stays just above its 200-day (1.6%) with a negative year
- ASML crossed under its 200-day — 4.1% above to 1.0% under
- Overbought set changed. WMT (73 to 69.5) and COST (72.5 to 69.2) cooled below 70. CME (71.3 to 77.8) stayed overbought, and SAP (75.6), ZS (51.4 to 72.0 on a 23.04% week), SPGI (71.9) and ISRG (70.8) joined; NOW sits at exactly 70.0
- INTU's gap to its 200-day narrowed from 13.4% under to 6.6% under; the thesis flag stays broken
- Breadth. Under 200-days 24 of 45 to 22; under 20-days 20 to 20
How To Read The Board
The strict screen is momentum under 30 with price under the 20-day average. Strict hits are ranked by a rough quality-times-discount judgment: strength of the one-year return (quality), then depth of the washout (RSI, distance under the 20-day and from the 52-week high). Names with an intact long trend (above the 200-day, positive year) outrank names that are only cheap, then names under the 200-day with a positive year, then negative years. When few names pass, the board also lists the closest misses (momentum 30-40, under the 20-day). This is raw screen evidence; a low RSI is not a buy, and outside verification of the business is required before acting. A name below its 200-day has a long trend under test; the 200-day is the line to watch.
Price Table
All rows as of 2026-10-23.
Strict Hits — Momentum Below 30 And Price Under The 20-Day (ranked)
| Rank | Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | From 52wk High | Quality read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LRCX | $230.1 | 24.6 | -23.3% | -12.82% | -25.12% | 55.96% | -18.8% | -47.53% | 🟡 Strongest year of the three (positive), under a lost 200-day in a falling regime; earnings already out |
| 2 | KLAC | $145.61 | 23.3 | -20.4% | -12.15% | -22.49% | 25.63% | -19.8% | -52.63% | 🟡 Lowest momentum on the board; positive year, under its 200-day |
| 3 | CAT | $687 | 26.7 | -12% | -5.99% | -15.4% | 31.99% | -15% | -36% | 🟡 Positive year, under its 200-day; earnings scheduled October 29 |
Closest Misses — Momentum 30-40, Price Under The 20-Day (ranked)
| Rank | Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | From 52wk High | Quality read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ANET | $172.37 | 33.7 | -12.8% | -2.6% | -15.28% | 12.84% | 5.2% | -20.72% | 🟢 Intact year, above its 200-day; deepest momentum washout among intact trends |
| 2 | NVDA | $210.96 | 38.1 | -6.5% | -1.48% | -6.45% | 15.81% | 3.6% | -13.32% | 🟢 Intact; thesis flag intact, thin cushion over its 200-day |
| 3 | AMD | $516.79 | 39 | -12% | -2.26% | -15.92% | 119.92% | 28.5% | -21.52% | 🟢 Intact; wide cushion over its 200-day, strongest year in the band |
| 4 | ASML | $1571.8 | 35.2 | -9.3% | -4.25% | -9.91% | 51.66% | -1% | -21.41% | 🟡 Just under its 200-day; year strongly positive |
| 5 | GOOGL | $320.21 | 31.3 | -6.7% | -5.98% | -5.22% | 26.53% | -6.2% | -21.63% | 🟡 Under its 200-day; year positive (thesis flag reads intact) |
| 6 | META | $642.62 | 35.7 | -10.5% | -9.4% | -13.64% | -12.45% | 1.6% | -17.59% | 🟡 Just above its 200-day, negative year; worst week in four years per the press |
| 7 | AVGO | $321.68 | 34.2 | -7.8% | -2.15% | -9.38% | -6.57% | -12.5% | -35.01% | 🔴 Under its 200-day, negative year (thesis flag reads intact) |
| 8 | NFLX | $65.85 | 37.1 | -4.8% | -6.64% | -7.72% | -40.87% | -20% | -43.59% | 🔴 Far under its 200-day, year deeply negative |
| 9 | BKNG | $155.83 | 37.8 | -2.9% | -4.66% | -0.04% | -23.52% | -12.7% | -29.43% | 🔴 Under its 200-day, negative year |
| 10 | UBER | $66.7 | 38.6 | -3.8% | -5.19% | -3.92% | -29.5% | -9.7% | -33.53% | 🔴 Under its 200-day, negative year |
| 11 | ORCL | $126.16 | 39.1 | -6.9% | -1.61% | -12.73% | -54.95% | -20.4% | -56.07% | 🔴 Far under its 200-day, year deeply negative (thesis flag reads intact; the tape disagrees) |
Everything Else
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Bucket | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL | $228.51 | 41.1 | $256.79 | -11% | 0.3% | -12.41% | 176.08% | 27.3% | Quality dip | 🟢 Intact |
| AMZN | $248 | 43.2 | $254.43 | -2.5% | -0.8% | -0.51% | 12.17% | 1.9% | Quality dip | 🟢 Intact |
| DE | $646.15 | 46.7 | $655.12 | -1.4% | 0.67% | -8.93% | 37.65% | 7.5% | Quality dip | 🟢 Intact |
| QCOM | $175.91 | 47.9 | $178.17 | -1.3% | 2.21% | -10.81% | 3.46% | 3.9% | Quality dip | 🟢 Intact |
| MSFT | $524.51 | 52.6 | $526.7 | -0.4% | -0.86% | 4.78% | 0.76% | 20.2% | Quality dip | 🟢 Intact |
| INTU | $343.39 | 64 | $306.17 | 12.2% | 5.61% | 19.73% | -49.33% | -6.6% | Broken thesis | ❌ Thesis flagged broken |
| CME | $305.71 | 77.8 | $280.23 | 9.1% | 4.03% | 12.89% | 13.69% | 9.4% | Extended (RSI 70+) | 🟠 Intact, extended |
| SAP | $238.14 | 75.6 | $218.87 | 8.8% | 6.18% | 13.07% | -14.5% | 24.1% | Extended (RSI 70+) | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year, extended |
| ZS | $255.15 | 72 | $216.25 | 18% | 23.04% | 18.98% | -19.96% | 53.7% | Extended (RSI 70+) | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year, extended |
| SPGI | $450.31 | 71.9 | $412.39 | 9.2% | 4.81% | 10.78% | -6.71% | 4.1% | Extended (RSI 70+) | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year, extended |
| ISRG | $452.29 | 70.8 | $420.59 | 7.5% | 6% | 13.56% | -17.96% | 3.7% | Extended (RSI 70+) | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year, extended |
| NOW | $158.96 | 70 | $141.68 | 12.2% | 11.97% | 12.91% | -15.37% | 38.1% | Extended (RSI 70+) | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year, extended |
| TSLA | $372.22 | 51.5 | $369.87 | 0.6% | 4.93% | -2.08% | -17.1% | -3.7% | — | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| PLTR | $196.75 | 54.4 | $195.51 | 0.6% | 5.76% | 2.59% | 9.01% | 28.5% | — | 🟢 Intact |
| TMO | $673.82 | 53.8 | $672.1 | 0.3% | -2.34% | 1.28% | 17.82% | 22.7% | — | 🟢 Intact |
| CRM | $248.57 | 60.7 | $235.53 | 5.5% | 3.27% | 4.63% | -2.54% | 25.1% | — | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| ADBE | $263.82 | 59.8 | $244.07 | 8.1% | 7.59% | 9.61% | -25.5% | 4.6% | — | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| WDAY | $209.99 | 66.8 | $192.39 | 9.1% | 10.05% | 9.15% | -13.68% | 34.9% | — | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| HON | $221.15 | 66.4 | $211.69 | 4.5% | 4.61% | 4.04% | 6.33% | -1.4% | — | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
| DIS | $112.52 | 66.5 | $107.65 | 4.5% | 1.75% | 8.76% | -0.45% | 8.7% | — | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| COST | $1003.32 | 69.2 | $958.15 | 4.7% | 1.44% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 3.5% | — | 🟢 Intact |
| WMT | $119.89 | 69.5 | $112.19 | 6.9% | 0.91% | 8.47% | 12.19% | 1.2% | — | 🟢 Intact |
| CEG | $253.45 | 40.7 | $273.16 | -7.2% | -6.6% | -3.95% | -30.71% | -10.1% | — | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| NKE | $37.3 | 55.1 | $35.88 | 4% | 0.46% | 3.47% | -46.47% | -20.2% | — | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| LULU | $99.01 | 49.7 | $96.32 | 2.8% | 1.97% | -3.2% | -44.71% | -27.4% | — | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| TTD | $13 | 52.5 | $12.32 | 5.5% | 6.3% | 2.52% | -75.98% | -37.1% | — | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| DPZ | $313.61 | 53.6 | $304.32 | 3.1% | 1.61% | 5.8% | -25.64% | -9.1% | — | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| MCD | $248.46 | 57.7 | $238.13 | 4.3% | 2.26% | 4.25% | -19.06% | -12.7% | — | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| PEP | $135.77 | 59.6 | $129.24 | 5.1% | 3.26% | 4.29% | -10.39% | -7.1% | — | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| HD | $319.83 | 62.5 | $297.61 | 7.5% | 3.29% | 7.79% | -16.93% | -4.7% | — | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| LOW | $198.68 | 56 | $189.59 | 4.8% | 0.66% | 3.83% | -18.53% | -12.7% | — | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): KLAC (23.3), LRCX (24.6) — both 19% to 20% under their 200-days and in a falling regime.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): CAT (26.7), GOOGL (31.3), ANET (33.7), AVGO (34.2), ASML (35.2), META (35.7), NFLX (37.1), BKNG (37.8), NVDA (38.1), UBER (38.6), AMD (39.0), ORCL (39.1). Above the 200-day with a positive year: ANET, NVDA, AMD. Within about 2% of the 200-day: ASML (just under, positive year) and META (just above, negative year). Under the 200-day with a positive year: CAT and GOOGL, as well as the capitulation pair above. Under the 200-day with a negative year: AVGO, NFLX, BKNG, UBER, ORCL.
Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): the remaining 31 names. At or above 70: CME (77.8), SAP (75.6), ZS (72.0), SPGI (71.9), ISRG (70.8), NOW (70.0).
Entry Zones
Conditions on screen output, not calls. Levels come from the price summaries.
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | Current $230.1; shelf $217.56, 20-day $299.94, 200-day $283.43 | Positive year (55.96%) under a lost 200-day; a hold above the shelf is the first condition, the 20-day reclaim the first repair |
| KLAC | Current $145.61; shelf $119.71, 20-day $182.97, 200-day $181.64 | Lowest momentum on the board; same conditions, with the shelf far below price |
| CAT | Current $687; shelf $594.74, 20-day $781.05, 200-day $808.62 | Strong year, lost its 200-day; earnings October 29 sit before any reclaim |
| ANET | Current $172.37; 200-day $163.77, shelf $142.39 | Intact year; the 200-day is the line while momentum sits near 30 |
| NVDA | Current $210.96; 200-day $203.67, shelf $188.99 | Thin cushion; the 200-day decides |
| AMD | Current $516.79; 20-day $587.22, 200-day $402.08 | Large cushion; a flag needs sellers to stop above the 200-day |
| MRVL | Current $228.51; 20-day $256.79, 200-day $179.55 | Out of the band; pullback toward the 20-day is the condition |
| META | Current $642.62; 200-day $632.53, shelf $633.82 | Thin cushion, negative year; a close under the 200-day extends the week |
| GOOGL | Current $320.21; shelf $313.9, 200-day $341.31 | Positive year under the 200-day; flag intact; reclaim first |
| MCD / PEP / HD / LOW | MCD $248.46 (200-day $284.56); PEP $135.77 ($146.17); HD $319.83 ($335.56); LOW $198.68 ($227.61) | Negative years under 200-days; bounces, not repairs |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX, KLAC | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Strict hits, positive years, 19% to 20% under 200-days in a falling regime; no reclaim yet |
| CAT | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Strict hit, positive year, 15% under its 200-day; earnings October 29 |
| ANET, NVDA, AMD | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Intact trends in the near-miss band |
| ASML, GOOGL | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Positive years, just lost their 200-days |
| META | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Worst week in four years; 1.6% over its 200-day with a negative year |
| MRVL, AMZN, DE, QCOM, MSFT | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Shallow dips above 200-days |
| AVGO | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Under its 200-day, negative year (flag reads intact) |
| ORCL | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | One-year loss near 55%, far under its 200-day |
| NFLX, BKNG, UBER | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Under 200-days with negative years |
| MCD, PEP, HD, LOW | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Bounced earlier, fell Friday, still under 200-days |
| NKE, LULU, TTD, DPZ | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Deeply negative years, far under 200-days |
| INTU | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Thesis flagged broken |
| CME, SAP, ZS, SPGI, ISRG | 🟠 | ⚠️ Avoid chasing | RSI above 70 |
What To Watch Next
- Do LRCX, KLAC and CAT reclaim their 20-days? $299.94, $182.97 and $781.05. Until then the bounce, if any, is inside a falling regime.
- 200-day reclaims for the trio: LRCX $283.43, KLAC $181.64, CAT $808.62. A bounce that stalls under these is a lower high.
- Caterpillar's earnings, scheduled October 29 before the open — the first company-specific event for the strict-hit industrial.
- 200-days for the intact group: ANET $163.77, NVDA $203.67, AMD $402.08; ASML ($1,587.99) and META ($632.53) are the thin ones.
- Does the consumer fade extend? MCD $284.56, PEP $146.17, HD $335.56 and LOW $227.61 are the 200-days these names are still under.
- INTU's thesis flag stays broken through a 5.61% weekly rise.
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed price summary, settled 2026-10-23 close (bargain-bin); provider per row: Polygon (Massive), with Schwab where the summary names it.
- Lam Research earnings result (EPS actual versus consensus): stock-event record dated 2026-10-21 (2026-10-21-lrcx-earnings, yfinance). Caterpillar's scheduled date: 2026-10-29-cat-earnings.
- MarketWatch, "3 big reasons Micron and other chip stocks fell hard on Thursday," October 22: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-big-reasons-micron-and-other-chip-stocks-are-falling-on-thursday-312f1fb2
- CNBC, Meta's worst week in four years, October 23: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/meta-shares-rough-week-mike-khouw-is-buying.html
- Retail and staples breadth: the desk's October 23 lane tape.
- News receipts: Lam Research pulled 2026-10-23 (quote pages and the company's earnings release only); KLA pulled 2026-10-22 evening (quote pages only); Caterpillar last pulled October 19 (Pacific), stale for this move, so the absence of a cause there is a missing pull, not evidence of none. Stock-events checked for all three; article captures from 2026-10-23 searched for the consumer names.
- Prior-week readings quoted for comparison (RSI, 200-day gaps, breadth counts, near-miss list): prior edition 2026-10-16-bargain-bin.
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