Data as-of the 2026-10-23 settled close. World facts carry their own dates (October 19–23). Company items dated this week exist for the large producers, services, refiners, the primes, the crude and gas funds, gold and the long bond; silver, the gold miners, the dollar fund and the energy-sector funds ($XLE, $XOP, $OIH) were last pulled earlier, so their moves are tape unless a dated item is cited.

The war is still paying through oil, and this week the services finally joined. Brent reached $116 to $117 (CNBC and Bloomberg, October 23), all six producers rose 2.67% to 4.49% Friday, and four of them closed at RSI 75.7 to 76.9, with $XOM printing a new intraday 52-week high of $183.75 and closing 0.29% under it. Oil services reclaimed their lines: the services fund ($OIH) jumped 5.4% on 2.13 times normal volume to 0.5% over its 200-day and $SLB gained 7.08% on its report. Refiners cooled (Valero fell 5.72% on the week despite a record quarter) while gold, silver and the miners kept sliding, with the gold miners reclassified into a downtrend. Lockheed (+9.44%) is the one defense prime back over its 200-day; the rest of the group did not trade the war.

Producers extended into the highs, but the weekly pace slowed. $XOM, $CVX, $COP and $EOG closed 0.23% to 1.29% under their 52-week highs at RSI 75.7 to 76.9; $DVN is 2.5% under and $OXY 4.86% under at RSI 68.5. All six are above their 200-days (12.7% to 25.7%) on one-year gains of 48.96% to 67.41%, and $XOM, $COP, $EOG and $OXY are classified as breakouts. Their weekly gains were +1.3% to +3.65%, against +3.78% to +9.25% a week ago; Friday alone accounted for most of the week's gain in every case and for more than all of it in four ($XOM, $COP, $EOG, $DVN). CNBC (October 23) reported Brent above $116, a six-month high, with President Trump accusing Iran of trying to manipulate the oil market; Bloomberg's closing wrap said Brent settled near $117 as a flare-up in Middle East violence threatened supplies, and Bloomberg (October 22) had Brent headed for a third weekly gain as attacks on Saudi Arabia intensified. Company evidence that realized prices are up: an EOG filing dated October 8 raised its third-quarter current tax expense guidance to $835 million to $935 million from $545 million to $645 million, which it ties to higher realized crude prices. Valuation is the counterweight: StockAnalysis and Investing.com show Exxon's average analyst target at $175.41 and $179.41, below the $183.21 close, and Exxon is scheduled to report October 30 before the open with consensus EPS of $3.96 against $1.88 a year ago (ChartRow).

Services joined the move. The services fund gained 5.4% Friday on 2.13 times normal volume, the heaviest on the board, and closed 0.5% over its 200-day after sitting 2.8% under it a week ago. $SLB rose 7.08% on 1.55 times volume after reporting Friday morning: adjusted EPS of $0.64 against $0.61 consensus (earnings calendar) and revenue of $9.45 billion (company release) against about $9.28 billion expected (BestStocks); it is 3.5% over its 200-day, up from 3.0% under. Piper Sandler trimmed its target to $63 from $64, citing the Middle East slowdown including rig suspensions (StockAnalysis, October 23). $HAL rose 5.21% to 2.3% under its line (6.1% under a week ago); it reported October 20 (EPS $0.60 against $0.58) and BestStocks (October 23) lists a Q3 beat, an analyst upgrade and new offshore wins with Eni, partly offset by softer North American fracturing, as the reasons for Friday's move. The limit on the services story is US drilling: Semafor (October 21) quoted a Permian chief executive calling "drill as much as you can" a path to economic suicide.

Refiners cooled inside their trends. $VLO reported October 22: EPS of $23.90 against $21.23 consensus, net income of $6.8 billion and adjusted refining operating income of $32.09 a barrel (company release). The stock fell 2.40% Thursday and 1.64% Friday, to RSI 51.2 from 66.4 a week ago; MarketBeat (October 23) attributes the fall to profit-taking after a major rally, which is the press's stated reason. It is still 49.5% over its 200-day on a +142.18% year. $PSX fell 3.41% on the week to RSI 58.2 (70.7 last week) and reports October 28 (provider estimate).

The havens kept failing. Gold fell 0.65% Friday and 4.03% on the week to 11.5% under its 200-day. Bloomberg (October 23) said it steadied near its lowest close in more than three months as investors sold it in a cross-market stock rout, and Bloomberg (October 21) had it falling on oil-driven inflation fears ahead of the Fed. Silver is 25.0% under its line; the gold miners ($GDX) lost 8.56% and were reclassified from pullback to downtrend, 11.8% under their 200-day (3.7% last week). Bonds went the other way. The long-bond fund ($TLT) gained 1.61% on the week to RSI 62.5 and sits 4.1% under its 200-day (5.8% last week): CNBC (October 22) had the 10-year yield falling below 5% to its lowest in nearly a month as stocks slumped and oil surged, MarketWatch called it the biggest yield drop since the 2023 banking crisis, quoting PGIM's Tipp as saying it is a "take-back trade," not a recession scare, and CNBC (October 23) had it just below 5% on Friday. Bloomberg (October 22) ties the rally to renewed doubts about the AI trade, not to the war. The dollar fund ($UUP) was flat at RSI 57.8, 3.9% over its 200-day.

Against the October 16 edition (history, for comparison):

• Producers stayed extended but the pace slowed. $XOM, $CVX, $COP and $EOG RSI went from 70.3–74.7 to 75.7–76.9. Weekly gains went from +3.78%–+9.25% to +1.3%–+3.65%. $OXY and $XLE were reclassified to breakout from uptrend.
• Services caught up. $OIH reclaimed its 200-day (from 2.8% under to 0.5% over) and $SLB did too (3.0% under to 3.5% over); $HAL's gap narrowed from 6.1% to 2.3%.
• Refiners cooled. $VLO RSI went from 66.4 to 51.2 and its lead over its 200-day from 62.3% to 49.5%; $PSX RSI from 70.7 to 58.2 and its lead from 53.0% to 44.9%.
• Havens deteriorated. Versus the 200-day: $GLD from 7.9% to 11.5% under, $SLV from 21.2% to 25.0%, $GDX from 3.7% to 11.8%. $UUP RSI is unchanged (57.7 to 57.8).
• Bonds reset higher. $TLT RSI went from 56.4 to 62.5 and its gap to the 200-day from 5.8% to 4.1% under.
• Defense split. $LMT became the first prime over its 200-day (6.7%); the five primes went from +3.91%–+8.34% on the week to −1.5% to +9.44%, and the baskets turned negative. $LHX moved from collapse to downtrend.
• Counts. Names above their 200-days went from twelve to fifteen ($LMT, $SLB and $OIH joined); names above their 20-days from 21 to 20; names up on the day from 24 of 28 to 15 of 28. RSI of 70 or higher: six names now ($LMT, $CVX, $COP, $XOM, $EOG, $USO) against five. RSI under 40: six now ($SLV, $ITA, $GLD, $UNG, $GDX, $PPA) against one.

The tables are raw screen evidence from the October 23 settled close. Use the one-year and vs-200-day columns to separate long trends from weekly noise. Energy names over their 200-days on +42% to +142% years are intact trends; those at RSI 75 or higher and within 1.3% of their highs are extended, and a pullback in them is a flag rather than a break. Names under their 200-days with positive years ($HAL, $GDX, $SLV, $RTX, $GD) have a long trend under test; names with flat or negative years ($GLD, $UNG, $TLT, $NOC, $LHX, $BA) are basing at best, judged by the 200-day. World events carry their capture dates; none is treated as the cause of a single name's move unless the item names it.

• Six of six are above their 200-days and 20-days. The breakout pivots are $180.31 for $XOM (9.4-week base), $147.55 for $COP (9.0), $160.31 for $EOG (13.2) and $63.77 for $OXY (13.2); all four closed above them. $DVN's pivot is $51.70 and it closed under it at $51.39. A retest of those pivots is the natural test.
• Exxon and Chevron are scheduled to report October 30 before the open (Chevron's date is confirmed on its statistics page); ConocoPhillips and EOG November 5 (EOG's company page schedules its call for November 6), Devon November 5 (provider estimate) and Occidental November 9. Yahoo Finance's coverage summary notes ConocoPhillips said it is reviewing an unsolicited offer for a small European asset package; BofA raised its Chevron target to $252 from $227 on October 21 (MarketWatch quote page).

• The services leg is a one-day move on one report plus broad energy strength: $SLB, $HAL and $OIH sit 3.5% over to 2.3% under their lines and 12.24% to 19.89% under their highs, and the fund's base pivot is $440.11 on a 20.4-week base. The classifier calls $SLB a pullback and $HAL and $OIH basing. They need a second close over the line, not one.
• The refiners' lead over producers shrank: Valero and Phillips 66 are down 5.72% and 3.41% on the week, with 49.5% and 44.9% leads over their 200-days, on +142.18% and +108.51% years. A cooling to the 20- or 50-day inside those years is the shape of a flag: $VLO has slipped 1.5% under its 20-day and is 6.8% over its 50-day (392.41); $PSX is 2.0% over its 20-day and 7.9% over its 50-day (262.5).

• Crude (+4.8% on the week) outran the equity funds ($XLE +1.6%, $XOP +0.65%) again, the same pattern as last week. The US crude fund closed above its $163.77 pivot on a 6.4-week base.
• Natural gas fell 10.13% on the week and sits 43.71% under its high; Bloomberg (October 23) reported hedge funds at a record short on a mild-winter outlook. CNBC (October 23) says the war is helping US LNG exporters, with Qatar agreeing to buy US gas; the front-month gas fund did not follow.

• Gold is trading liquidity and the rate path, not fear: it fell while Treasuries and the yen found haven bids (Bloomberg, October 22–23). Its close sits near the bottom of a 52-week range of $360.12 to $509.70 (MarketChameleon's quote page); the 200-day ($414.21) is the line to reclaim.
• The dollar is the only haven still above its 200-day, and it did not rally on a risk-off week. The long-bond bounce came from the AI selloff and is unconfirmed: $TLT is 3.3% over its 20-day and 4.1% under its 200-day on a −11.04% year. Bloomberg's closing wrap said Treasuries gave back part of Thursday's rally Friday; the fund fell 0.49%.

Lockheed and Northrop rose on beat-and-raise reports with record backlogs ($292.0 billion and $109.6 billion); RTX fell after its own beat. The war premium test fails outside earnings. The full read, including TTM Technologies and the nuclear names, is in the defense-contractors scan.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $SLV (31.4), $ITA (32.1), $GLD (34.1), $UNG (34.5), $GDX (34.5) and $PPA (38.3). All six are under their 200-days; the three haven funds and gas sit in downtrend or basing classifications, and the defense baskets trail the weaker primes.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+) — everything else. Six names are at RSI 70 or higher: $LMT (78), $CVX (76.9), $COP (76.8), $XOM (76.1), $EOG (75.7) and $USO (72.2); $XLE (69.4) and $OXY (68.5) are next. Four producers are at RSI 75 or higher at once.

Conditions, not orders. Names at RSI 75 or higher and within 1.3% of their highs have no zone until they come back. Screen output only.

• Growth and AI hardware. Bloomberg's closing wrap (October 23): chipmakers had their longest weekly drop since November, the Dow fell 1.2%, and most S&P 500 stocks lost ground. Korean chipmakers fell with US tech (Bloomberg, October 23).
• Oil-cost groups. On Friday all six airlines, all nine travel-leisure names, all 22 retailers and all ten consumer-staples names closed lower (the day's group tape). Bloomberg (October 23) reported GM's worst week since 2023 in a wider autos selloff; the excerpt on file gives no cause. An automated summary note attached to the October 21 blockade report flags airlines and transports as exposed; it is a gloss, not reporting.
• Gold, silver and the miners. Sold with the stock rout and the oil-driven hike odds (Bloomberg, October 21 and 23), not with the dollar.
• Natural gas. $UNG lost 10.13% on the week against a record hedge-fund short (Bloomberg, October 23).
• Gulf economies and Chinese equities. Semafor (October 23): the war's economic shock to the Gulf is nearly as acute as COVID's, with Oman the outlier; CNBC (October 22): China's CSI 300 in a bear market, 20% under its June peak.
• The euro. Hedge funds' bearish euro positioning is the largest since March 2020 as France's turmoil rattles the currency (Bloomberg, October 23).

The state of the war as of October 23:

• The weekend's Iran and Saudi headlines. Brent at $116 to $117 against the producers' pivots: $XOM $180.31, $COP $147.55, $EOG $160.31, $OXY $63.77. A close back inside the bases would turn the breakouts into spikes.
• Evidence on Hormuz and Saudi flows. The blockade accounts and the wire reports disagree; a dated flow data point (PortWatch, Kpler or the wires) would settle which version the market is trading.
• The October 28 Fed decision (two-day meeting, October 27–28) and the 10-year's position against 5%. $TLT closed 4.1% under its 200-day.
• Refiners' flag. $PSX scheduled October 28 (provider estimate); whether Valero and Phillips 66 hold their 50-days.
• Services follow-through. A second close over the 200-day for $OIH and $SLB, and $HAL's gap of 2.3%.
• Major producer reports: Exxon and Chevron October 30; ConocoPhillips and EOG November 5; Devon November 5 (estimated); Occidental November 9 (provider dates unless noted).
• Defense 200-days. $RTX (2.1% under) and $GD (1.5% under) are the nearest; Boeing is scheduled October 27, L3Harris October 29, General Dynamics October 30.
• Gold's 52-week low of $360.12 and the gold miners' shelf (75.28).
• Missing receipts. News pulls dated this week for $OXY (last pulled July 14, no items), $DVN (June 21), $XLE (September 30), $XOP (October 9), $OIH (October 13), $SLV (August 25, no items), $GDX (September 24), $UUP (October 1), and for General Dynamics, L3Harris, Boeing and the baskets (September).

• geopolitical (2026-10-23 settled close, fetched 2026-10-23 22:03 UTC; table values via bindings; base pivots from the same rows)
• 2026-10-16-geopolitical-risk (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-10-16 and 2026-10-23.json (classification changes)
• latest (fetched 2026-10-23 23:53 UTC, ok): houseofsaud.com, IRGC mine blockade; gist.website, Saudi export routes; Bloomberg, sticky inflation and the Fed; CNBC, Treasury yields ahead of claims
• Captures: CNBC, Brent tops $116; Bloomberg, closing wrap; Bloomberg, oil market news for October 23; MarketWatch, oil on edge ahead of the weekend; MarketWatch, oil approaches Iran-war highs; MarketWatch, Gulf oil flows near pre-war levels; Bloomberg, oil market news for October 22; CNBC, US pulls diplomats from Saudi Arabia; Semafor, Netanyahu pushes the US to bomb Iran; Semafor, Israel and Iran ramp up war rhetoric; Semafor, Trump's Iran sanctions run into limits; Semafor, the Gulf's economic shock; Semafor, why Trump and an oil shock are not enough for Texan drillers; CNBC, Qatar deal to buy US natural gas; Bloomberg, hedge funds record short natural gas; Bloomberg, gold near three-month low; Bloomberg, gold falls as oil fuels inflation fears; CNBC, 10-year yield below 5%; CNBC, 10-year back to 5% this week; MarketWatch, Treasury yields' biggest drop since 2023; Bloomberg, long-end yield at one-month low; Bloomberg, yen outpaces peers; Bloomberg, Japanese bond yields fall; Semafor, US Treasurys gained in a flight to safety; Bloomberg, hedge funds' bearish euro bets; Bloomberg, GM worst week since 2023; Bloomberg, Korean stocks drop on chip losses; CNBC, China's CSI 300 in a bear market; CNBC, Saab orders triple; CNBC, Russia and Ukraine trade strikes despite peace push
• Company and coverage items: SLB, third-quarter 2026 results; StockAnalysis, SLB; BestStocks, SLB; BestStocks, HAL; Halliburton, third-quarter 2026 results; Valero, third-quarter 2026 results; MarketBeat, Valero news; StockAnalysis, Exxon; ChartRow, Exxon earnings date; Yahoo Finance, ConocoPhillips; EOG, October 8 filing; StockAnalysis, Chevron statistics; MarketChameleon, GLD quote page; Barchart, UNG quote page
• Event calendar: research/stock-events/ (2026-10-20 HAL, RTX, NOC, GE; 2026-10-22 VLO, LMT, TTMI; 2026-10-23 SLB, reported; 2026-10-28 PSX, 2026-10-30 XOM and CVX, 2026-11-05 COP, EOG and DVN, 2026-11-09 OXY, scheduled provider dates, some estimated). The FOMC date is from the desk's event calendar (calendar).
• News receipts checked: pulled October 23 (after the close) for XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, SLB, HAL, VLO, PSX, USO, UNG, GLD, TLT, LMT, RTX, NOC and the macro lane; older pulls for OIH (October 13), XOP (October 9), XLE (September 30), UUP (October 1), GDX (September 24), SLV (August 25, no items), OXY (July 14, no items), DVN (June 21), GD and LHX (September 24), BA (September 22), ITA (September 25), PPA (September 18). research/stock-events/ has no entry dated October 21 for a name on this board beyond the reports listed.