Retail Scan — October 23, 2026 Close
Retail Scan — October 23, 2026 Close
All 22 retail names fell on Friday — a turn from last Friday's 12 up and 10 down — led lower by Coca-Cola Consolidated (-5.41%), Deckers (-4.91%) and Lululemon (-4.85%), yet 12 of 22 are still up on the week and 18 of 22 over 30 days. Walmart (RSI 69.5) and Costco (69.2) slipped from RSI 70 or above to just under it and TJX cooled to 62.7, so no name is extended; Chipotle (RSI 24.9) is the only washout, and nine of 22 close above their 200-day averages (eight a week ago), with Starbucks the addition.
Data as of the 2026-10-23 close (settled, Friday). The previous edition closed October 16; the seven-day column runs from that close to this one, so it is the change since then.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Strong month, weak Friday: 12 up and 10 down on the week (18 up a week ago), 0 up and 22 down on Friday, 18 of 22 up over 30 days. Nine of 22 above their 200-day averages and 14 of 22 above their 50-day; none at RSI 70 or above (three a week ago). |
| Leaders | SBUX (3.36%), HD (3.29%), MCD (2.26%) |
| Laggards | CMG (-7.93%), ONON (-6.45%), AS (-5.93%) |
| Caveat | Tape from pre-computed price summaries, 2026-10-23 close. News was refreshed after Friday's close for only seven of the 22 names (Shopify, Target, Abercrombie, On, Coca-Cola Consolidated, Lululemon, Deckers); the other 15 were last pulled before the session, so their causes read "not on file", which is not the same as no cause. |
What's Going On
Friday's sell-off was complete and consumer-specific. The mildest declines were Shopify (-0.08%), Walmart (-1.02%) and Starbucks (-1.09%); the worst were Coca-Cola Consolidated (-5.41%), Deckers (-4.91%), Lululemon (-4.85%), On Holding (-4.38%) and Abercrombie (-3.51%). The retail fund XRT fell 1.65% (relative volume 1.52), the staples fund XLP 1.92% and the discretionary fund XLY 1.66%, while energy rose (XLE +2.6%, USO +4.32%), QQQ was flat (-0.01%) and SPY fell 0.52%. The October 23 market brief has retail 0 of 22 up (about -2.3% median), consumer staples 0 of 10, travel and leisure 0 of 9 and airlines 0 of 6. The month is still the stronger read: 18 of 22 are up over 30 days, 14 of 22 sit above their 50-day, and the brief's 30-day rank for retail reads leading. Context only: Brent crude topped $116, a six-month high (CNBC, October 23), and the 10-year Treasury yield sat just under 5% (CNBC); no receipt ties the sell-off to either.
The extended trio cooled but kept its footing. Walmart (-1.02% Friday, +0.91% on the week, RSI 69.5, from 73.0) holds its 200-day by 1.2% ($118.42); Costco (-1.46%, +1.44%, RSI 69.2, from 72.5) holds it by 3.5% ($969.35); XRT holds it by 2.4% ($85.64). TJX (-1.57%, RSI 62.7, from 74.8) ended 4.3% under its 200-day ($151.61), against 2.9% under a week ago, on a +1.87% year. Target (-3.38% Friday) is an intact trend on a +62.08% year, 14.9% above its 200-day, now under both its 20-day (-1.2%) and 50-day (-3.1%).
The housing-linked bounce kept going. Home Depot rose 3.29% on the week (RSI 62.5) and sits 4.7% under its 200-day ($335.56), from 7.9% a week ago; Lowe's rose 0.66% (RSI 56.0, 12.7% under, from 13.7%); McDonald's rose 2.26% (RSI 57.7, 12.7% under, from 15%). Home Depot and Lowe's now close above their 50-days (+3.2% and +0.5%), the step the October 16 edition named; McDonald's is 0.5% under its 50-day ($249.79). The years are still -16.93%, -18.53% and -19.06%, and all three fell Friday (-2.41%, -2.78%, -1.65%). Home Depot's, Lowe's and McDonald's news was last pulled before Friday's session or earlier, so no cause is on file for the week.
Deckers is the one big Friday move with a sourced cause. The company reported fiscal second-quarter results on Thursday after the close: EPS of $2.31 against a $1.79 consensus (the stock-event record), record revenue of $1.48 billion (the company's release) that Benzinga reports missed a $1.51 billion estimate, and a lowered full-year revenue outlook; Investing.com showed the shares down 7.3% after hours to about $79. Friday's close was $81.09 on 2.88 times average volume. The athletic peers fell with it: Lululemon -4.85%, On Holding -4.38% (-6.45% on the week, RSI 48.0 from 69.9), Nike -2.66% and Amer Sports -2.55% (-5.93% on the week). MarketBeat's Lululemon page calls it a broad athletic-apparel selloff, and Investing.com's On Holding page lists a Jefferies Underperform note dated October 21; those are press-stated items, and no receipt measures the Deckers print's share of the peers' moves.
The strongest trends sold off with the rest and no cause is on file. Abercrombie (-3.51%, RSI 62.5) is on a +123.85% year, 50.7% above its 200-day and 4.88% under its high; Coca-Cola Consolidated (-5.41%, the board's worst Friday, relative volume 1.5) is on a +59.2% year, 9.6% above its 200-day; the company has announced it will release third-quarter results after the close on November 4. Shopify (-0.08%) is 29.9% above its 200-day and +18.5% over 30 days, though its trailing year is barely positive (+0.99%) and it is scheduled to report November 3 before the open. News for Abercrombie, Coca-Cola Consolidated, Shopify and Target was pulled October 23 after the close and holds no dated item on Friday's move (MarketBeat's Abercrombie page mentions a Citi downgrade without a date; Stock Analysis notes Coca-Cola Consolidated's drop came ahead of its November report, which is not a cause), and the stock-event records and October 20-23 captures hold no item on either. Cause unknown. In restaurants, Chipotle (-2.2% Friday, -7.93% on the week, RSI 24.9) is the only washout, 19.8% under its 200-day on a -34.16% year, while Starbucks reclaimed its 200-day by 1.3% (see the Consumer scan for the sources).
What Changed Since Prior Scan
Eighteen up and four down on October 16 became twelve up and ten down, and Friday went from 12 up and 10 down to 22 down. Names above their 200-day went from eight to nine: Starbucks joined, and Walmart, Costco and XRT held on cushions of 1.2%, 3.5% and 2.4% (0.5%, 2.4% and 1.6% a week ago). Names at RSI 70 or above went from three (TJX 74.8, Walmart 73.0, Costco 72.5) to none. Chipotle fell from RSI 34.3 to 24.9, the only reading under 25; the 25-40 tier is empty. Structure counts: intact 8 to 9, under test 4 to 3, below the 200-day on down years 10 to 10. Leaders rotated from Abercrombie, Starbucks and Coca-Cola Consolidated to Starbucks, Home Depot and McDonald's: Abercrombie went from +7.49% to +1.67% and Coca-Cola Consolidated from +7.18% to -3.34%. Chipotle and On Holding were laggards both weeks.
How To Read The Board
This is a price-and-momentum screen built from pre-computed price summaries: it shows where each name sits on the tape, not why it moved. RSI under 30 is a washout and 70 or above is extended; neither is a recommendation on its own. The structure label carries the long view and outranks the week: trend intact is above the 200-day average with a positive trailing year (a bad week here is a pullback); repair is above the 200-day but down on the year; trend under test is below the 200-day with a positive year (the 200-day is the line to retake); below the 200-day, year down is where a base would form, and a long flat or down year is what a base looks like before the first pop, so the 200-day reclaim, not the year, is the test. A raw reading becomes a setup only when an intact trend pulls back, holds a level and turns up. No insider, fundamentals or options data is included in the table; business quality is not screened here.
Price Table
As of 2026-10-23. Price and SMA20 in dollars; RSI is a 14-day reading; all other columns in percent.
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 1D | 7D | 30D | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 100.8 | 61 | 95.67 | 5.4 | -1.09 | 3.36 | 7.07 | 17.98 | 1.3 | 🟢 Trend intact, thin cushion |
| HD | 319.83 | 62.5 | 297.61 | 7.5 | -2.41 | 3.29 | 7.79 | -16.93 | -4.7 | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down |
| MCD | 248.46 | 57.7 | 238.13 | 4.3 | -1.65 | 2.26 | 4.25 | -19.06 | -12.7 | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down |
| LULU | 99.01 | 49.7 | 96.32 | 2.8 | -4.85 | 1.97 | -3.2 | -44.71 | -27.4 | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down |
| ANF | 155.82 | 62.5 | 146.67 | 6.2 | -3.51 | 1.67 | 17.82 | 123.85 | 50.7 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| DPZ | 313.61 | 53.6 | 304.32 | 3.1 | -1.29 | 1.61 | 5.8 | -25.64 | -9.1 | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down |
| CASY | 699.26 | 61.5 | 650.1 | 7.6 | -2.02 | 1.46 | 17.07 | 31.23 | -5.5 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| COST | 1003.32 | 69.2 | 958.15 | 4.7 | -1.46 | 1.44 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| WMT | 119.89 | 69.5 | 112.19 | 6.9 | -1.02 | 0.91 | 8.47 | 12.19 | 1.2 | 🟢 Trend intact, thin cushion |
| XRT | 87.65 | 59.8 | 84.76 | 3.4 | -1.65 | 0.72 | 6.76 | 2.97 | 2.4 | 🟢 Trend intact, thin cushion |
| LOW | 198.68 | 56 | 189.59 | 4.8 | -2.78 | 0.66 | 3.83 | -18.53 | -12.7 | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down |
| NKE | 37.3 | 55.1 | 35.88 | 4 | -2.66 | 0.46 | 3.47 | -46.47 | -20.2 | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down |
| SHOP | 168.68 | 57.6 | 164.96 | 2.3 | -0.08 | -0.5 | 18.5 | 0.99 | 29.9 | 🟢 Trend intact, year barely positive |
| YUM | 149.7 | 57.2 | 144.44 | 3.6 | -3.08 | -0.54 | 6.45 | 2.28 | -2.5 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| TGT | 152.76 | 46.1 | 154.66 | -1.2 | -3.38 | -0.97 | -2.24 | 62.08 | 14.9 | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact |
| TJX | 145.06 | 62.7 | 140.04 | 3.6 | -1.57 | -1.54 | 10.24 | 1.87 | -4.3 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| CROX | 119.23 | 48.9 | 119.26 | 0 | -1.45 | -3.18 | -4.33 | 40.02 | 9.6 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| COKE | 203.31 | 53.6 | 198.76 | 2.3 | -5.41 | -3.34 | 8.44 | 59.2 | 9.6 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| DECK | 81.09 | 43.4 | 82.52 | -1.7 | -4.91 | -5.39 | 3.18 | -20.92 | -18.8 | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down |
| AS | 28.24 | 45.6 | 28.4 | -0.6 | -2.55 | -5.93 | 4.98 | -10.75 | -16.8 | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down |
| ONON | 32.51 | 48 | 33.27 | -2.3 | -4.38 | -6.45 | 7.79 | -24.8 | -12.1 | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down |
| CMG | 27.52 | 24.9 | 30.61 | -10.1 | -2.2 | -7.93 | -15.87 | -34.16 | -19.8 | 🔴 Washout, below 200-day |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI under 25)
| Stock | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | 24.9 | -34.16 | -19.8 | Below the 200-day, down on the year; a washout, not yet a base |
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
No names in this tier.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
21 names; RSI in parentheses, full rows in the price table.
- Trend intact: TGT (46.1), CROX (48.9), SHOP (57.6), XRT (59.8), COKE (53.6), ANF (62.5), SBUX (61), COST (69.2), WMT (69.5)
- Under test (below 200-day, up on the year): YUM (57.2), CASY (61.5), TJX (62.7)
- Below the 200-day, year down: AS (45.6), DECK (43.4), ONON (48), LULU (49.7), DPZ (53.6), NKE (55.1), LOW (56), MCD (57.7), HD (62.5)
Entry Zones
Levels are the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages from the summaries, in dollars. Each row is a condition from the screen, not an order.
| Stock | Entry zone ($) | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| ANF | 138.07–146.67 | Trend intact; price is above the zone. Entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| COKE | 194.91–198.76 | Trend intact; price is above the zone after a -5.41% day. Entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| SHOP | 151.11–164.96 | Trend intact, year barely positive; price is above the zone. Entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| XRT | 84.76–85.22 | Trend intact on a 2.4% cushion; price is above the zone. Entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| WMT | 109.43–112.19 | Trend intact on a 1.2% cushion, RSI just under 70; the flag is a pullback toward the 20-day that holds the 50-day, then a turn back up. |
| COST | 938.86–958.15 | Trend intact, RSI just under 70; the flag is a pullback toward the 20-day that holds the 50-day, then a turn back up. |
| CROX | 108.77–120.01 | Under the 50-day inside an intact trend; a close back above the 50-day is the trigger, the 200-day the floor. |
| TGT | 132.94–157.62 | Under the 50-day inside an intact trend; a close back above the 50-day is the trigger, the 200-day the floor. |
| SBUX | Above 99.5 | Trend intact on a thin cushion; the 200-day and the 50-day (99.51) are one level. Entry on a pullback that holds it and turns up. |
| TJX | Above 151.61 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| YUM | Above 153.55 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| CASY | Above 739.94 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| HD | Above 335.56 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| LOW | Above 227.61 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| MCD | Above 284.56 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| CMG | Above 34.31 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| DPZ | Above 345.05 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| DECK | Above 99.81 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| AS | Above 33.93 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| LULU | Above 136.34 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| NKE | Above 46.74 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
| ONON | Above 37 | Below the 200-day; no zone until two closes back above it. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANF, COKE | 🟢 Trend intact | 🔒 Hold | Strongest years on the board (+123.85%, +59.2%), both above their 20- and 50-day after Friday's -3.51% and -5.41%. Coca-Cola Consolidated is scheduled to report November 4 after the close. |
| SHOP | 🟢 Trend intact, year barely positive | 🔒 Hold | Smallest decline Friday (-0.08%); 29.9% above its 200-day but a +0.99% year. Scheduled to report November 3 before the open. |
| CROX | 🟢 Trend intact | 🔍 Watch (50-day reclaim) | At its 20-day, 0.7% under its 50-day; scheduled to report October 29 before the open. |
| TGT | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact | 🔍 Watch (50-day reclaim) | -3.38% Friday; under its 20- and 50-day, 14.9% above its 200-day. |
| WMT, COST, XRT | 🟢 Trend intact, thin cushions | 🔍 Watch (200-day hold) | Cushions of 1.2%, 3.5% and 2.4%; Walmart and Costco at RSI 69.5 and 69.2. |
| SBUX | 🟢 Trend intact, thin cushion | 🔍 Watch (200-day hold) | Reclaimed the 200-day by 1.3%; estimated to report October 29 after the close. |
| TJX, YUM, CASY | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Positive years, closed 4.3%, 2.5% and 5.5% under the 200-day. |
| HD, LOW | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Now above their 50-days; 4.7% and 12.7% under the 200-day. |
| MCD | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down | 🔍 Watch (50-day reclaim) | 0.5% under its 50-day, 12.7% under its 200-day; estimated to report November 4 before the open. |
| DECK, LULU, ONON, AS, NKE, DPZ | 🔴 Below 200-day, year down | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Athletic names fell 2.55% to 4.91% after Deckers' print; Domino's -1.29%. |
| CMG | 🔴 Washout, below 200-day | 🔍 Watch (washout, first pop) | RSI 24.9, the only reading under 25; estimated to report October 28 after the close. |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Trigger | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| WMT, COST, XRT | Hold the 200-day (WMT 118.42, COST 969.35, XRT 85.64) | Cushions of 1.2%, 3.5% and 2.4%; a close under puts each back in the trend-under-test group. |
| WMT, COST | RSI stays under 70 and price holds the 20-day (WMT 112.19, COST 958.15) | An extended reading is where the flag comes from, not the entry. |
| HD, LOW | Hold the 50-day (HD 309.99, LOW 197.71) | First closes above it; the 200-day (HD 335.56, LOW 227.61) is the next line. |
| MCD | Close above the 50-day (249.79) | The step Home Depot and Lowe's have taken. |
| TGT | Close back above the 50-day (157.62) | Decides whether Friday's drop is a flag in an intact trend. |
| Friday's sell-off | The first up session; whether 14 of 22 stay above their 50-days | 22 of 22 down is a day, not yet a trend change; the month is still strong. |
| CMG, SBUX, CROX | Reports: Chipotle estimated October 28 after the close, Starbucks estimated October 29 after the close, Crocs scheduled October 29 before the open | The next company prints on the board. |
| SHOP, YUM, MCD, COKE | Reports: Shopify and Yum scheduled November 3 before the open, McDonald's estimated November 4 before the open, Coca-Cola Consolidated announced for November 4 after the close | The following week's prints. |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, averages, returns, long-horizon fields, Friday volume): pre-computed summary, 2026-10-23 close — retail. Index and sector-fund context (SPY, QQQ, XLE, XLP, XLY, USO): market-pulse.
- Prior-week prices, RSI, leaders and structure counts — the October 16 retail scan, 2026-10-16-retail-scan.
- Group moves on the day — October 23 market brief, 2026-10-23-market-brief.
- Deckers — company release, October 22 (https://ir.deckers.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/666/deckers-brands-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-financial-results); EPS against consensus from the stock-event record 2026-10-22-deck-earnings; Benzinga (https://www.benzinga.com/markets/earnings/26/10/62547618/deckers-outdoor-stock-tanks-on-mixed-q2-print-lowered-revenue-guidance); Investing.com quote page (https://www.investing.com/equities/deckers-outdoor-corp), from the Deckers news pull of 2026-10-23. Athletic peers — MarketBeat Lululemon page (https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/LULU/news/); Investing.com On Holding news page (https://www.investing.com/equities/on-holding-news). Headline-level reads, not a measured attribution.
- Coca-Cola Consolidated report date — GlobeNewswire, October 21 (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/21/3385904/0/en/coca-cola-consolidated-inc-to-release-third-quarter-and-first-nine-months-2026-results.html); drop "ahead of the November report" — Stock Analysis (https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/coke/market-cap/). Abercrombie — MarketBeat page (https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/ANF/news/). Shopify report date — company notice (https://www.shopify.com/news/shopify-q3-2026-financial-advisory). Other report dates from the stock-event records for CMG (2026-10-28), SBUX and CROX (2026-10-29), SHOP and YUM (2026-11-03), MCD (2026-11-04) and COKE (2026-11-04).
- Market context — CNBC, "Brent crude oil tops $116, a six-month high, as tensions swell in the Middle East" (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/oil-price-brent-wti-iran-war-saudi-arabia.html) and "10-year Treasury yield drops back to 5% this week as investors seek cover from AI worries" (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/bonds-yields-us-treasurys.html).
- Cause check: news pull dates (stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
, UTC): SHOP, TGT, ANF, ONON, COKE, LULU, DECK 2026-10-23 (after Friday's close); HD, MCD and CASY 2026-10-23T02:52 (before Friday's session); NKE and CMG 2026-10-22; XRT 2026-10-19; COST 2026-10-20; WMT 2026-10-15; TJX 2026-10-13; DPZ 2026-10-16; SBUX 2026-10-09; LOW 2026-10-03; CROX 2026-10-03; AS 2026-09-18; YUM 2026-07-17. Event records (research/stock-events/`) checked for October 19-23: the only entry on this board is the Deckers earnings record; the rest are earnings records for GE, GM, IBM, KO, LMT, META, TSLA, TXN, WDC and others. Article, X and filing captures for October 20-23 were searched by company name; the only hits are the Chipotle article and a Lululemon Form 8-K (contents not in the capture), plus Walmart and TJX Form 8-Ks and Walmart prospectus supplements whose contents are also not in the captures and are not read here. A news pull dated before a move does not cover it, and a pull with no item on the move is not proof of no cause.
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