Curated Picks · Events
Tickers
Oct 22 pick SemiAnalysis — 2027 adds +50GW of datacenters in a single year, and the shortage could move to chips
Oct 22 tweet KawzInvests — IDC: Q3 smartphone shipments fell 22%, the worst on record, as memory costs rose about 350% MUSNDKAAPL +1
Oct 22 tweet KawzInvests — Anthropic's compute bill fell to about 55 cents per revenue dollar, but $450B of mostly non-cancelable cloud deals need $82–116B a year in sales AMZNGOOGLMSFT +1
Oct 22 tweet dylan (@demian_ai) — Nvidia's GTC Berlin supplier release puts dates on packaging, test and substrate ramps, and the orders move a year ahead of capacity NVDAAMKRE
Oct 16 tweet Serenity - KeyBanc checks: Google discussing memory supply agreements through 2035, Samsung 70% allocated through 2031 GOOGLMUSKHY
Oct 16 tweet SemiAnalysis - Neoclouds refused GTC Berlin access after adding AMD GPUs and TPUs NVDAAMDGOOGL
Oct 16 pick Semafor - AI infrastructure debt costs soar: Oracle's debt rated just above junk, Microsoft's AAA protection up 25% ORCLMSFT
Oct 16 tweet Photon Capital - TSMC 3Q26: revenue +41% YoY, 4Q guide about +14% QoQ, capital spending held at $60-64B, N2 capacity to double in 2027 TSMLRCXFORM
Oct 16 tweet Markos - Neocloud systemic risk is the B/C-tier wave borrowing against weak contracts, not the big names NBISCRWVIREN +1
Oct 16 tweet Makai Research - VLCC owners slow-steam in ballast despite $600k-$1m a day earnings, propping up the freight spike FROINSWDHT +1
Oct 15 tweet Zephyr — the physics of SK Hynix's HBM4 problem: halving the die gap cuts underfill flow 8x SKHYMU005930.KS
Oct 15 tweet Markos (AAIG) — neocloud returns now come down to yield on cost vs. 6–9% financing; watch dollar-per-megawatt pricing CRWVIRENNBIS +1
Oct 15 tweet KawzInvests — CoreWeave pays about 8.4% blended, not 15%; the real risk is the next financing CRWV
Oct 15 tweet Eric Nuttall — energy fund ends two months of defense and deploys cash on an $84 2027 WTI strip
Oct 15 tweet dylan (@demian_ai) — ASML's long-term contract liabilities jumped almost €6B in a quarter: demand with money attached ASML
Oct 13 tweet Serenity — Asian coverage of Hock Tan's DBS remarks has him defending OpenAI, not calling AI a casino AVGO
Oct 13 tweet Satya Nadella — Maia becomes Microsoft's primary inference system at multi-gigawatt scale starting next calendar year MSFT
Oct 13 tweet Paradis — GS and JPM: Tuesday's KOSPI selling was about 95% tech, foreign sellers against Korean dip-buyers EWY
Oct 13 tweet M. V. Cunha — Nebius reportedly signs an LOI for a big share of a planned 600 MW AI campus in Rotterdam NBIS
Oct 13 tweet KawzInvests — Celestica's OCP data: transceiver qualification windows shrink to 18 months while GPUs refresh every 12 CLSEVIAVAEHR +2
Oct 13 tweet dylan — AI's silicon interposers are pulling in the older fabs that make power and analog chips GFS
Oct 9 tweet SemiAnalysis — rising H100 rents break the depreciation curve lenders underwrite, with $7T of debt coming CRWVNBIS
Oct 9 pick Semafor — a large tanker from the US to Asia now costs up to $77M to hire, from under $10M last year FRODHTBWET
Oct 9 tweet Eric Nuttall — $80-plus WTI for 2027 is now on the table, with free-cash-flow yields up about half XLEXOP
Oct 9 tweet Convequity — Lumentum's laser demand rides on CPO design choices that are still open LITE
Oct 9 pick Bloomberg — asset managers are dumping long-duration Treasury futures, a sign of forced selling TLT
Oct 9 tweet Aakash Gupta — SpaceX's 800 MHz buy is the indoor layer satellites were missing VZETTMUS +1
Oct 6 reddit r/investing summary of a Goldman Sachs derivatives note — the S&P 500 now trades as an AI basket, not a macro clearing price SPYIWM
Oct 6 pick MarketWatch — Google's new Constellation nuclear deal equals the output of a new reactor CEGGOOGL
Oct 6 tweet Frontier Map — Europe paid 8.6 times the US gas price in September as Hormuz cut Qatar's LNG exports LNG
Oct 6 pick Bain & Company — sustaining today's AI capex would take an AI market near $6 trillion a year
Oct 6 pick Applied Digital — up to 1 GW of potential power capacity in Finland, its first international development APLD
Oct 2 tweet Serenity — Lumentum's CEO says the company can supply only 30% of 2027 demand as co-packaged optics arrive LITECOHR
Oct 2 tweet SemiAnalysis — ruthenium, a hard-drive input, went from about $560 an ounce in early 2025 to near $1,950 in September STXWDC
Oct 2 tweet SemiAnalysis — Google's GPU cloud climbs to Gold in ClusterMAX, but CoreWeave and Nebius are still the Platinum names it holds up as the bar CRWVNBISGOOGL
Oct 2 tweet Frontier Map — the 130-week bushing, not the transformer core, is the grid's longest lead time
Oct 1 tweet Serenity — Morgan Stanley hears 3.2T Chinese transceiver curbs are coming, with a 65% US-content escape hatch LITECOHRAAOI +3
Oct 1 tweet Paradis — Micron's Q4 deck: 26 strategic customer agreements and $32B in commitments, mostly cash deposits MU
Oct 1 tweet KawzInvests — open models now carry 61% of Vercel gateway tokens while H200/B200 rents rise and H100/A100 rents fall NBISCRWV
Oct 1 tweet KawzInvests — Credo's growth beyond copper: optics above $600M in FY27 plus a 1.6T AEC ramp CRDO
Oct 1 tweet Gaurab — Patriot missile replenishment runs through a handful of US ball-screw grinders LMTRTX
Oct 1 tweet Eric Nuttall — exports recover to a 14.3MM bbl/d 7-day average but are still ~4MM short, and OilX has Mideast output down 6.6MM bbl/d USOBNO
Sep 25 tweet Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) — Akamai's $11.6B Anthropic deal pre-buys memory ahead of a stated AI slowdown AKAMAMDMU
Sep 25 pick SemiAnalysis — 1,000+ Chinese AI data centers mapped, one hyperscaler leasing a fifth of national capacity
Sep 25 tweet Citrini — 738 controlled tests point to a bigger Fastly role in Meta Muse traffic than analysts have priced FSLYMETA
Sep 25 pick Bloomberg — Lutnick's $1.6B rare-earth magnet bet raises a conflict-of-interest question USAR
Sep 25 tweet amit (@amitisinvesting) — SemiAnalysis' ClusterMax 3.0 adds Nebius alongside CoreWeave at the top GPU-cloud tier NBISCRWV
Sep 23 pick MarketWatch — Micron has become a battleground stock as the AI narrative shifts to the durability of memory demand MUSNDK
Sep 23 pick MarketWatch — fewer stocks are carrying the S&P 500 than at any time since the dot-com peak SPYRSPQQQ
Sep 23 pick Frontier Map — gas turbines: the plans, the slots and the factories behind the US gas-fired buildout GEVVRTETN
Sep 23 pick CNBC — the market now prices the next Fed hike for October after Barr's comments and a hot S&P Global inflation reading XLUXLREXLF +1
Sep 23 pick Bloomberg — Nvidia is now among the most traded names in US credit default swaps as investors hedge its debt after June's billion bond sale NVDA
Sep 23 pick Bloomberg — five-year Treasury yields breach 5% for the first time since 2007 as the bond slide deepens TLTIEFLQD +1
Sep 22 pick MarketWatch — jet fuel is following diesel's price jump as refineries run short VLOPSXMPC +2
Sep 22 pick AXIS CEO Vince Tizzio — marine cover around Hormuz is up 30-40% on a year ago AXSFRODHT +2
Sep 21 pick CNBC — Texas governor orders a data-center permit halt weeks after a moratorium VSTIRENAPLD +1
Sep 21 pick Bloomberg — a CoreWeave-leased data center goes to the junk-bond market for about $1.1 billion CRWVOWL
Sep 18 pick Semafor — shipowners ordered twice 2025's tanker count this year, the biggest buying spree in 25 years FRODHTSTNG +1
Sep 18 pick SEC clears path for tokenized stocks, bringing the market closer to 24/7 trading COINHOODBTC-USD
Sep 18 pick CNBC — record diesel hits trucks and rails first, then everything they carry VLOPSXMPC +1
Sep 18 pick Aju Press — Hormuz is down to four ships a day and war-risk cover costs 40 times normal FROSTNGINSW
Sep 16 tweet Serenity — Foxconn's interconnect chairman names CW lasers and fiber the photonics bottleneck LITECOHRAAOI +3
Sep 16 tweet SemiAnalysis — Rubin NVL72 benches at 7x the performance per watt of GB300, not the 3x claimed NVDA
Sep 16 pick Reuters — SK Hynix in talks to build memory in the US with Intel for the first time INTCSKHYMU
Sep 16 reddit Reuters — Canada makes immediate capex write-offs permanent, cutting its effective tax rate on new investment to 6.4%
Sep 16 tweet Paradis — Nebius raises rates on four-year-old H100s, and the GPU-depreciation bear case with them NBISCRWVNVDA
Sep 14 pick Elmet — a $450M Department of War committed investment in US and allied tungsten supply ELMT
Sep 10 tweet Winston — Permian output nearly quadrupled on flat completion counts because laterals went from 6,149 ft to 10,867 ft
Sep 10 tweet Terry — Citi Global TMT readout: NAND TAM $50B to $500B by 2027, AMD CPU TAM $60B to $220B, optical testing capacity about 100x short SNDKMUAMD +3
Sep 10 tweet Serenity — HBM scarcity has pushed Chinese AI accelerator prices up 20-50% in two months MUSKHY
Sep 10 tweet M. V. Cunha — Nebius management at Goldman: demand visibility stretches to 24+ months, older GPUs stay economically relevant NBISCRWVPLTR +2
Sep 10 tweet CV Research via CK Capital — AI power loss scales with current squared, not watts, and one vendor transforms instead of switching VICR
Sep 2 tweet Eric Nuttall - global oil inventories at all-time lows despite record SPR/floating-storage draws
Sep 1 tweet HBM shortage reportedly forces a Rubin Ultra spec cut — the memory trade has a bearish edge NVDAMUSNDK
Aug 27 tweet Anthropic could be public within weeks — prospectus after Labor Day, secondary sales included
Aug 25 pick China needs U.S. dollars but is building a hedge against Washington's sanctions GLDSILUUP
Aug 24 pick The Strait of Hormuz: Security Developments and Impacts on Oil, Gas, and Other Commodities USOBNOXLE +1
Aug 22 tweet The Kobeissi Letter — South Korea's chip trade surplus hit a record ~$35B in June, more than tripling in 12 months MUSNDKEWY
Aug 22 tweet SemiAnalysis — 3D NAND is switching word lines from tungsten to molybdenum above ~300 layers MUSNDKAMAT +1
Aug 22 tweet IPO Newsroom — Anthropic bankers floated a $100B+ raise at a $2T valuation, per NYT (early discussions) MSFTNVDA
Aug 19 tweet zephyr_z9 — Marvell hands Google a warrant for ~6.7% of the company, vesting on custom-chip revenue MRVLGOOGL
Aug 18 tweet Transmission is the binding constraint on new generation — Pepco's rights-of-way rebuild is the template
Aug 18 tweet Anthropic's pre-IPO credit facility is set to top its $10B target — lead banks asked for ~$1.25B each
Aug 11 tweet The Kobeissi Letter — memory is now the tape: NVDA, MU and SNDK are three of the four most-traded US stocks NVDAMUTSLA +1
Aug 11 tweet SemiAnalysis — TileRT compiles the whole model into one persistent GPU kernel, claiming 1.9x decode interactivity on the same Blackwell chips NVDA
Aug 8 tweet Winston (ChurchillWw) — a Mountain Pass-to-Fort Worth rare-earth magnet is now in an automaker's qualification process MP
Aug 8 tweet Serenity (aleabitoreddit) — White House puts real dollars behind critical-minerals names: WWR, SRL, FEAM, HREE WWRSRLFEAM
Aug 8 tweet Serenity (aleabitoreddit) — AAOI's earnings call says China is years behind on CPO lasers, and AAOI itself is capacity-out of first-gen CPO AAOISIVEFLITE +2
Aug 8 tweet IPO Newsroom — NVIDIA is putting up to $3B into the Blackstone-backed firm that owns the land under Stargate NVDABX
Aug 8 tweet Gaurab Chakrabarti — sulfuric acid for copper leaching has roughly doubled since February
Aug 8 tweet Gaetano (crux_capital_) — the market sold off the wrong optical name: his bull case for why AXTI's China selloff is negotiating leverage, not a real ban AXTIAAOICOHR +1
Aug 6 tweet The Kobeissi Letter — record 4.0M S&P 500 call volume as put/call skew posts its biggest two-day drop since 2017 SPYVIXY
Aug 5 tweet Gavin Baker on Invest Like the Best — no slowdown on the ground: old GPUs repricing up, the memory war, and who funds the buildout NVDAMUSNDK +1
Aug 4 tweet Zephyr — AMD's 'Venice beats Vera by 20%' claim points at a chip missing from AMD's own price list NVDAAMD
Aug 4 tweet KawzInvests — hyperscalers' $270bn debt raise is backed by $7 of signed backlog per $1 borrowed MSFTORCLGOOGL +1
Aug 4 tweet Gaurab Chakrabarti — Iran-linked hackers targeted pressure setpoints at 30+ Minnesota water utilities
Aug 4 tweet ChurchillWw — ZEISS is expanding all three of its main German optics plants at once ASML
Jul 31 tweet @gabriel_horwitz — Korea's 'ants': the generation that turned the stock market into its housing fund EWY
Jul 31 tweet @fintergirl — Korean retail's 2x inverse SK Hynix ETF lost ~60% in one day when the squeeze snapped back EWYSKHY
Jul 28 tweet zephyr_z9 — China's chip-export jump traces to Korean-owned fabs, not indigenous mature-node output HY9H.F
Jul 28 tweet crux_capital_ — the photonics buildout isn't over, even at the height of fear LITEGLWCOHR +2
Jul 28 pick AXT — Tongmei withdraws Shanghai STAR IPO bid, pivots to Hong Kong listing for InP business AXTI
Jul 26 reddit u/rdh2dmd — Samsung, SK Group seal $950B in AI deals with Nvidia and Broadcom NVDAAVGO005930.KS +1
Jul 26 reddit u/app1310 — Short sellers notch $15.5B profit as SpaceX slides below its IPO price SPCXTSLA
Jul 26 reddit u/aperartnft — Alphabet's 82% cloud growth got sold anyway; capex guidance is why GOOGLTSLA
Jul 26 tweet ParadisLabs — LPKF Laser H1: ugly headline numbers, more nuanced underneath LPK.DELPKFF
Jul 22 reddit u/aperartnft — NVDA's 9.3% Nebius stake: guaranteed customer or circular financing NVDANBIS
Jul 22 pick Alphabet Q2: $44.9B quarterly capex, $180-190B FY guide, 2027 'significantly increases' GOOGLNVDACEG +1
Jul 22 pick ADATA chairman: DRAM shortage lasts another 10 years, 'AI bubble talk can wait until 2040' MUSNDK
Jul 18 tweet SemiAnalysis: K3's linear attention is bullish, not bearish, for NVIDIA/HBM/networking NVDAMU
Jul 17 tweet SemiAnalysis — AMD Helios vs NVIDIA Vera Rubin: double-wide racks and where the rack-level constraints bite
Jul 17 pick ChinaTalk — China's Mythos Moment: how Beijing responds when a Chinese lab reaches the frontier
Jul 16 pick Viks Newsletter — Lasers for CPO/NPO, Part 1: how the InP DFB laser works and where it hits a wall
Jul 16 pick Sherwood — General Fusion debuts on the Nasdaq, putting a fusion moonshot on the public tape
Jul 13 tweet Semiconductor Insider — Korea Investment Securities cuts SK Hynix 2026-27 operating profit 9-11% on HBM4 ramp delays MUSNDKEWY
Jul 13 reddit r/wallstreetbets — Meta's Louisiana data center to surpass $250B price tag METAGEVVRT +1
Jul 13 reddit r/stocks — SK Hynix tumbles 15% in Seoul AFTER a record Nasdaq ADR debut ($26.5B, 7x oversubscribed, ADR +13%) SKHYMUSNDK +1
Jul 13 tweet P Equity Research — BofA: memory indicator near record highs (183 vs past peaks of 120-130), super-cycle intact MUSNDK
Jul 13 tweet Global Markets Investor — KOSPI -9%, trading halted; SK Hynix -15%, its largest daily drop on record EWYMUSNDK
Jul 13 discord Dumb Money Discord — the viral 'rideable floating duck' / porch-goose trend (Five Below) FIVE
Jul 2 tweet @TheProfInvestor — sector rotation: Tech red → Healthcare/Financials leading (+ 25 bio names) UNHHIMSLLY +3
Jul 2 tweet @ren_stocks — long $NBIS, doubled the dip: hyperscaler excess-compute neocloud thesis NBIS
Jul 2 tweet @crux_capital_ — the two real bear cases for the photonics supercycle (laser oversupply vs VCSEL-over-SiPh) CIENAAOICOHR +1