Article published Oct 22, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
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Bloom Energy, which sells natural-gas fuel cells that power AI data centers on site, is doing well as a business and cratering as a stock: its shares fell 22.4% from the October 9 close to October 22, settled that day half a percent under their 200-day average and 38% under their 52-week high, and fell again in extended trading after a record, raised quarter. The quarter is real in the filings: revenue rose 138.1% to $1.24 billion, the GAAP operating margin reached 18.2%, and the 2026 revenue guide rose to $4.4–$4.6 billion, the third raise this year (SEC 10-Q and company release). The cash has not arrived yet: September-quarter operating cash flow was −$27.1 million against $249.0 million of net profit, because receivables and contract assets grew by about half the quarter's revenue. The call is to wait for a close back above the 200-day, then buy a retest that holds $208–$219.
Data as of 2026-10-22 close: BE $217.77, RSI 38.5, down trend, −16.9% vs SMA20, −12.6% vs SMA50, −0.5% vs SMA200, 1D −8.7% on 1.69 times average volume, 7D −7.84%, 30D −21.25%, 1Y +130.76%, −38.01% from the 52-week high.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-10-22)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟡 Wait for a close back above the 200-day, then buy a retest that holds $208–$219. Entry $208–$219 · stop $196 · first target $259 · medium conviction |
| What it is | A maker of solid-oxide fuel cells that turn natural gas into electricity on site, around the clock. Most end users pay for power, so Bloom sells the systems to financiers and partners that own them (10-K). AI data centers are most of the demand; the US was 97% of September-quarter revenue (10-Q). |
| What happened | Into the report: an October slide with the AI trade, then an 8.7% drop on October 22 as the AI supply chain sold off together. After it: a beat and a raised guide, and more selling in extended trading. |
| Proof | Revenue $1.24 billion, +138.1%; GAAP operating margin 18.2%; customer deposits $661.4 million at September 30 against $78.2 million at December 31; a guide that now implies a higher fourth quarter (10-Q; release). |
| Objection | September-quarter operating cash flow −$27.1 million and free cash flow about −$180.6 million (derived), as receivables and contract assets rose $605.6 million on milestone timing. Two counterparties took 69% of the quarter's revenue. |
| Stock setup | Long trend under test: more than double on the year, half a percent under the 200-day at the close and below it in the extended-hours snapshot. Support at the $207.75 shelf and the year's $196.79 volume-weighted average price. |
| Next date | Fourth-quarter report, not yet scheduled; last year's came February 5. |
Action Matrix (as of 2026-10-22)
| Signal | If | Then |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Buy | A settled close back above the 200-day ($218.86 on October 22), then a retest that holds $208–$219 on closes. The band runs from the $207.75 support shelf to the 200-day and contains the $215.45 average cost of every share traded since the year's low. | Entry on the first hold after the reclaim: the flag in a bottom → pop → flag sequence restarting from the post-report low. |
| 🟡 Wait | Closes between $196 and $219 with no reclaim, or a jump above the $238.53 October 21 close | No position while the post-report selling runs; a gap through $238.53 is a chase, not this entry. |
| 🔴 Out | After an entry, a close below $196 | Under the year's $196.79 volume-weighted average price, the average buyer of the past year is under water and the long trend has failed its test. The July 28 close of $166.84 is the next reference. |
| 🟠 Target | $259, the value-area high ($259.42), just under the 20-day average | Trim or trail; the month's high near $302 sits above. |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | Fourth-quarter revenue under the September quarter's $1.24 billion (10-Q), or a second cash-negative quarter with receivables and contract assets again rising faster than revenue | The profit is not turning into cash, and the raised guide was the third quarter carried forward. |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-10-22)
Bloom Energy is doing well as a business and cratering as a stock: down 22.4% from its October 9 close, it settled October 22 half a percent under its 200-day average and fell again after a record, raised quarter.
The slide started before the report. From $280.50 on October 9 the stock fell to $262.28 on October 12, with no cause on file, and to $221.31 on October 16, when the AI trade sold off as one block (October 16 market brief, citing Bloomberg on doubts about the AI trade). It rose 7.13% to $238.53 on October 21 with the whole data-center backup-power group; news pulled October 23 holds no dated company cause, only a quote page's undated mention of an Elon Musk remark on power bottlenecks and a UBS target raise. On October 22, still before results, it fell 8.7% to $217.77 as the AI supply chain sold off together. MarketWatch (October 22) gave three reasons for the wider selloff: Tesla's lower spending target, Lam Research's weaker forecast and "a fresh reminder that the AI boom relies on outside funding." 24/7 Wall St. (October 22) called Bloom's day a reversed pre-earnings rally.
The report beat and raised. After the close Bloom reported revenue of $1.24 billion, up 138.1%, GAAP operating income of $225.4 million and GAAP diluted earnings of $0.78 a share (SEC 10-Q). Non-GAAP earnings were $0.94 a share against a provider consensus of $0.67 (Yahoo Finance data; Investing.com cited $0.69), an adjusted-to-adjusted comparison. The 2026 revenue guide went to $4.4–$4.6 billion from $3.9–$4.2 billion, with non-GAAP operating income of $960 million to $1.03 billion. The company also announced an expanded Oracle master agreement, headlined as up to 2.8 GW (company release, October 22).
The selling continued after it. In extended trading the stock was at $202.84 at 10:17 p.m. PT on October 22, a Schwab quote snapshot rather than a close, 6.86% under the regular-session close and 14.96% under October 21's. Friday's pre-market trade is not reflected here.
Why a beat fell: the press has the cash figures right. Yahoo Finance (October 23) put the drop on record capital spending of $231 million this year and about $180 million of negative net cash flow. Both match the filings. Purchases of property and equipment were $231.3 million for the nine months, more than four times all of 2025's $56.8 million, and cash fell $180.4 million in the September quarter (the release's cash-flow statement). Operating cash flow for the quarter was −$27.1 million against $249.0 million of net profit. Receivables and contract assets, revenue booked on project milestones but not yet collected or billed, rose $605.6 million in the quarter: 49.0% of its revenue, against 21.1% in June and 7.0% in March (derived from the cash-flow statements). The 10-Q attributes the build to "the timing of milestone billings and customer acceptance cycles." Customer deposits rose $300.8 million in the quarter, to $661.4 million, and payables and accrued expenses rose $343.4 million; without them the gap would have been wider. Free cash flow was about −$180.6 million (derived: operating cash flow less capital spending).
The cash reading cuts both ways. The bear reading: Bloom is carrying its customers' projects on its own balance sheet while it spends on factories. The bull reading: nine-month operating cash flow is still $272.9 million, above the April investor deck's 2026 projection of more than $200 million, and the last two December quarters brought in $484.2 million and $418.1 million. Cash of $2.49 billion roughly equals $2.52 billion of recourse debt principal, almost all 0% convertible notes due November 2030.
The other suspects. Index flows do not fit: the S&P 500 addition took effect September 21 (Bloomberg, September 4), a month earlier. The run-up does: October 22's regular-session loss erased October 21's gain before results were out (24/7 Wall St.). The financing worry is in Bloom's own 10-Q, which says financing for data-center development "has generally become more difficult" and that projects using its fuel cells have met "increased scrutiny, data requests, and discretionary hearings which have resulted in permitting delays." Benzinga (October 22) tied the October slump to selling of AI winners and legal issues around Oracle's Project Jupiter; nothing primary in October adds to Oracle's September 24 force-majeure notice (Reuters). Concentration eased but stayed high: two counterparties took 43% and 26% of September-quarter revenue, the second a related party, after one took 73% of the June quarter (10-Q).
What the raised guide implies. Less the first nine months' $3.05 billion, the new range implies fourth-quarter revenue of $1.35–$1.55 billion, 9.1% to 25.2% above the September quarter, and non-GAAP operating income of $305–$375 million against $285.7 million (derived). The July range, after the September actual, would have implied a decline. The raise is a fourth-quarter step up, not only the third quarter's beat carried through.
The setup. The long trend is under test, not broken: the stock is up 130.76% on the year, its 50-day average still sits above the 200-day, and it settled half a percent under the 200-day, which stands at $218.86. The extended-hours snapshot was below that line and below the $207.75 support shelf. A drawdown this active has to turn before it is bought, so the entry waits for a settled close back above the 200-day, then a retest that holds $208–$219; the stop sits about 8% under the middle of that band.
The call: 🟡 Wait for a close back above the 200-day, then buy a retest that holds $208–$219. Stop $196, under the year's $196.79 volume-weighted average price; first target $259, the value-area high, the top of the year's heaviest-traded band. Medium conviction: demand, margins and the raised guide are filed; the weak link is whether the profit turns into cash, which only the December quarter can show.
What would change it. A December quarter inside the implied $1.35–$1.55 billion, with positive operating cash flow and receivables and contract assets falling as a share of revenue, upgrades the case. Fourth-quarter revenue under the September quarter's $1.24 billion, or a second cash-negative quarter, breaks it. A close under $196 ends the trade regardless of the story.
Extended analysis
Summary
Bloom makes the Bloom Energy Server, a solid-oxide fuel cell that converts natural gas, biogas or hydrogen to electricity electrochemically at the customer's site. Its 10-K pitches time to power: grid connections and turbines take years, while skid-mounted units support "installation timelines measured in weeks and months rather than years, subject to permitting and site conditions." AI data centers turned that pitch into revenue: quarterly revenue rose from $326.0 million in the March 2025 quarter to $1.24 billion in the September 2026 quarter, and the GAAP operating margin from −5.8% to 18.2% (SEC XBRL; 10-Q).
Most end users pay for the power, not the equipment, so Bloom sells its servers to financiers and partners that own them (10-K). That structure moved the decisive uncertainty from demand to collection. The September quarter's revenue was recognized on milestones while the cash arrives on billing and acceptance, the 10-Q says a sale to a financier generally waits until permits are in hand, and two counterparties took 69% of the quarter.
Why It Fell: The Dated Record
Each row carries a filing or a dated report. Prices for October are in the story above.
| Date | Event | Receipt |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | Oracle partnership; Bloom agrees to a warrant for up to 3,531,073 shares at $113.28 | 10-Q, Note 3 |
| 2025-11-04 | $2.5 billion of 0% convertible notes due November 2030 | 10-K; 10-Q debt note |
| 2026-02-05 | First 2026 revenue guide, $3.1–$3.3 billion | Company release (8-K) |
| 2026-04-28 | Guide raised to $3.4–$3.8 billion; deck projects 2026 operating cash flow above $200 million | Company release and deck (8-K) |
| 2026-07-28 | June quarter $1.065 billion, +165.5%; guide raised to $3.9–$4.2 billion | Company release; 10-Q/A |
| 2026-09-21 | S&P 500 addition takes effect | Bloomberg, September 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Oracle force-majeure notice to the Project Jupiter developer | Reuters, September 24 |
| 2026-10-12 | Report date set for October 22; the stock falls, cause not on file | Company release; October 12 market brief |
| 2026-10-16 | AI trade sells off; the S&P 500's worst week since June | Bloomberg, via the October 16 market brief |
| 2026-10-19 | The $256–$273 entry zone from the October 9 dive retired after the September–October range broke | Desk target review |
| 2026-10-21 | Rise with the backup-power group, cause not on file | October 21 market brief; news pulled October 23 |
| 2026-10-22, session | Drop with the AI supply chain before results | October 22 market brief (MarketWatch); 24/7 Wall St. |
| 2026-10-22, after the close | September-quarter release, 10-Q, third guide raise, Oracle master agreement | SEC 8-K EX-99.1; 10-Q; company release |
| 2026-10-23 | Press puts the extended-hours drop on capital spending and cash flow | Yahoo Finance, October 23 |
The September Quarter in the Filings
In the release's words: SEC filing: “Revenue of $1,235.8 million increased 138.1%.” SEC filing: “Non-GAAP EPS of $0.94 increased $0.79.” Its headline adds: SEC filing: “Raises full year 2026 revenue guidance to $4.4 billion - $4.6 billion”. Product revenue was $1,073.6 million, up 179.4%, and product gross margin rose to 37.9% from 36.5% in June. The 10-Q says product revenue rose on "new acceptances and subsequent delivery of existing contracts, driven by continued demand for time-to-power solutions." GAAP gross margin was 33.8%; installation ran at a loss.
Orders on the balance sheet. Customer deposits were $661.4 million at September 30, against $360.6 million at June 30 and $78.2 million at December 31; the 10-Q credits "receipt of new deposits associated with recently executed customer agreements and milestone payments on ongoing projects." Unsatisfied performance obligations for product and installation were $661.2 million, against $442.4 million at June 30, expected to convert within one to two years (10-Q). Management's larger backlog measure is not an accounting figure.
The cash. The 10-Q's own summary: SEC filing: “Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, was $272.9 million”. The largest item on its working-capital list: SEC filing: “A $879.3 million increase in accounts receivable and contract assets”. The filing attributes it to "the timing of milestone billings and customer acceptance cycles"; inventory rose $285.5 million on raw materials bought ahead of production, and vendor-payment timing supplied a $583.5 million offset. The capital-spending line, in thousands of dollars for 2026 and 2025: SEC filing: “Purchase of property, plant and equipment (231,310) (33,805)”. Most of the increase was "tenant improvements for a leased engineering and manufacturing facility in Fremont, California" (10-Q).
Two items from the October 9 dive resolved. Bloom's $50.0 million payment in May for option rights on an Oracle-linked project was repaid by Brookfield in the September quarter, and Bloom no longer holds the rights (10-Q). The Oracle warrant's remaining cost sits on the balance sheet as a $306.5 million customer consideration asset; $17.3 million has been charged against revenue to date, as Oracle's systems deliver (10-Q, Note 3).
How the Business Makes Money
Product first, service tail second. In the September quarter product revenue was 86.9% of the total; installation was $84.9 million at a −4.8% gross margin, service $67.6 million at 17.8%, electricity $9.8 million (release; 10-Q). Service contracts run 5 to 20 years, but customers can end them annually (10-K).
Sold through financiers. "To date, the majority of our end user customers prefer to pay for the power they will consume from our Energy Server product," so the sale "is made to a financier or other strategic partner that owns the Energy Server product" (10-K). The 10-Q defines a "customer" in its concentration table as the contractual counterparty, which "may be a project‑finance affiliate rather than the ultimate end user." Revenue from related parties, the Brookfield fund joint ventures, was $321.6 million in the September quarter, 26.0% of the total (10-Q, Note 11).
Installation is moving off Bloom's books. The 10-Q says Bloom continues "to evolve our installation approach to a consult-only model, particularly for large load sites where we request customers to utilize one of our certified third-party installers." Installation lost money in the June and September quarters; handing it to certified contractors should shrink that loss line, at the cost of Bloom's control of the timeline.
Primary power, not backup. The 10-K says the systems "are designed to operate at a constant output 24x7." Bloom sells baseload, behind-the-meter generation that competes with gas engines, small turbines and the grid, not standby equipment.
Concentrated by design. Three buyers made up 43%, 13% and 12% of 2025 revenue, the largest a related party (10-K). One counterparty took 73% of the June quarter (10-Q/A). In the September quarter two took 43% and 26%, the second a related party; for the nine months, 43% and 23%. Three customers held 31%, 24% and 15% of receivables at September 30 (10-Q).
Capacity. The 10-K plans to double factory capacity by the end of 2026. The 10-Q says Bloom will "continue to make capital investments to expand production capacity at our manufacturing facilities in Fremont, California and Delmarva, Delaware," funded "from cash on hand as well as cash flow expected to be generated from operations," and may "evaluate and arrange equipment lease financing."
What the Company Says It Is Becoming
"Our long-term objective is to establish our solid oxide fuel cell technology as the standard architecture for onsite power across data centers, advanced manufacturing, critical infrastructure, and other sectors globally" (10-K). In the release, chief executive KR Sridhar said, "What began with hyperscalers is rapidly moving across market segments because every business needs reliable power to grow." Chief financial officer Simon Edwards: "We continue to invest with discipline to build the capabilities and capacity needed to scale the business."
Two 10-K statements frame the quarter. "We have seen an increasing number of transactions move from a booking to revenue in less than twelve months," which is why guidance can rise mid-year. And "our ability to deploy our backlog is directly tied to our ability to secure project financing, which is often an unpredictable process."
The 10-Q adds two warnings. On opposition, New York's July executive order created a moratorium on new hyperscale data centers, and "Similar moratoriums have since been introduced in many other states"; projects using Bloom's systems have seen permitting delays. On financing: "Hyperscalers have increasingly funded such data center investments through borrowing rather than cash reserves," customers viewed as high credit risks make projects harder to finance, and "we generally cannot sell our Energy Servers to a financier until permits are in hand." The filing reports no material change to its risk factors since the 10-K and the June 10-Q, and it rejects the July 8 short-seller report's conclusions on its supply chain.
Tax support is real and conditional. The 2025 tax law made fuel cells eligible for the Section 48E investment credit for projects beginning construction from 2026 through 2033, without the domestic-content and energy-community bonuses (10-K). The 10-Q notes that financiers may delay closing until guidance on those credits is clearer.
What the Street and the Public Conversation Say
Before the report. The Motley Fool (October 21) had the stock 36% under its June record and argued that the old forecast assumed flat quarterly profits through year-end; it suggested waiting for stronger second-half revenue, which the report delivered. The Motley Fool (October 19) counted June-quarter free cash flow of $175 million as a green flag, matching the $174.8 million derived from the filings, against a price of 347 times trailing earnings. Zacks (October 19) flagged its streak of earnings beats. Quote pages carried target raises: UBS to $350 from $325 and BMO to $260 from $227 (stockanalysis.com), and a Baird Buy at $351 on October 15 (Markets Insider). Benzinga (October 22) read options positioning as pointing to a post-report bounce toward $230; the extended-hours snapshot went the other way.
After it. Investing.com's call-transcript story (October 22) reported the beat and a further 5% drop after hours. Yahoo Finance (October 23) gave the capital-spending and cash-flow reason, headlined chief executive Sridhar's view that power demand will "skyrocket" beyond AI, and described retail sentiment as strongly bullish. These are press accounts of the call, not the transcript itself.
On X and Reddit. A retail investor posting as Kaizen Investor on X (October 22) wrote after the report: "If the market punishes this, it is another buying opportunity." An r/ValueInvesting thread the same day opened: "Meta and Bloom Energy both produced incredible quarters, yet their stocks tanked after earnings." A post relayed by TheBuildout on October 15 estimated installed cost near $5,700 per kilowatt, a large premium to gas generation; it is an unverified estimate. A social-media search on October 23 returned two unrelated Hacker News items and its YouTube and X legs timed out, so it adds nothing.
Positioning. Short interest was 20,982,242 shares at the September 30 settlement, 7.1% of the 295.5 million shares outstanding, about one day of volume (Massive). Insiders sell and do not buy: none of the Form 4s captured since August is an open-market purchase, the latest is Chief Commercial Officer Aman Joshi's October 1 sale, and none dated after it is on file. The 10-Q discloses new trading plans for director Barbara Burger, up to 19,210 shares, and chief operations officer Satish Chitoori, up to 10,000.
The Conviction Chain
| Link | Evidence | Confirms | Breaks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. AI sites need power faster than the grid connects it | 10-K: multi-year grid and turbine timelines; 10-Q: product growth on "continued demand for time-to-power solutions" | More behind-the-meter awards; the Oracle master agreement converting to deliveries | Interconnection or turbine supply catches up; moratoriums spread |
| 2. Bloom wins the onsite slot | Customer deposits $661.4 million at September 30, up from $360.6 million at June 30; product obligations $661.2 million | Deposits keep rising; a named non-Oracle program | Deposits stall or fall |
| 3. Orders convert on schedule | Guide raised three times this year; implied fourth quarter above the third | December-quarter revenue of $1.35–$1.55 billion, the implied range | Revenue under the September quarter; permit stops (10-Q) |
| 4. Conversion is profitable | GAAP operating margin 18.2%; product gross margin 37.9% | Margin holds as factories expand and installation shifts to contractors | Financing costs push prices down (10-Q); warranty costs rise |
| 5. Profit becomes cash | September-quarter operating cash flow −$27.1 million; receivables and contract assets build at 49.0% of revenue, up from 7.0% in March | December-quarter operating cash flow positive and the build shrinking, as in the last two December quarters | A second negative quarter; contract assets keep doubling |
| 6. Financing holds | Cash roughly equals recourse debt principal, mostly 0% notes due 2030 | Financier purchases continue; deposits fund the build | Financiers slow; the 10-Q's financing warning becomes cancellations |
Weakest link: 5, cash conversion. Demand, margins and the guide are filed. Whether milestone revenue turns into collected cash on the December schedule is not, and that doubt is the press reading of the after-hours drop (Yahoo Finance). Conviction stays medium until the December quarter shows it.
Financial Proof
Quarterly results, GAAP, US dollars in millions. Operating income and diluted EPS come from the SEC filings; margins and growth are computed from the reported lines. December-quarter flows are the full year less nine months. Quarterly cash flows after the first quarter are year-to-date filings differenced, so they are marked derived.
| Quarter (period end) | Revenue ($M) | YoY | Gross margin | Operating margin | Operating income | Diluted EPS | Operating cash flow, derived ($M) | Capex, derived ($M) | Free cash flow, derived ($M) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (Sep 30) | 1,235.8 | +138.1% | 33.8% | 18.2% | $225.4M | $0.78 | −27.1 | 153.5 | −180.6 | SEC 10-Q |
| Q2 2026 (Jun 30) | 1,065.4 | +165.5% | 33.4% | 17.1% | $182.2M | $0.62 | 226.4 | 51.6 | 174.8 | SEC 10-Q/A |
| Q1 2026 (Mar 31) | 751.1 | +130.4% | 30.0% | 9.6% | $72.2M | $0.23 | 73.6 | 26.2 | 47.4 | SEC XBRL |
| Q4 2025 (Dec 31) | 777.7 | +35.9% | 30.8% | 11.3% | $87.5M | n/a (no quarterly filing) | 418.1 | 23.0 | 395.1 | SEC XBRL |
| Q3 2025 (Sep 30) | 519.0 | +57.1% | 29.2% | 1.5% | $7.8M | −$0.10 | 19.7 | 12.3 | 7.4 | SEC XBRL |
| Q2 2025 (Jun 30) | 401.2 | +19.5% | 26.7% | −0.9% | −$3.5M | −$0.18 | −213.1 | 7.2 | −220.4 | SEC XBRL |
| Q1 2025 (Mar 31) | 326.0 | +38.6% | 27.2% | −5.8% | −$19.1M | −$0.10 | −110.7 | 14.3 | −124.9 | SEC XBRL |
| Q4 2024 (Dec 31) | 572.4 | +60.4% | 38.3% | 18.3% | $104.7M | n/a (no quarterly filing) | 484.2 | 11.1 | 473.1 | SEC XBRL |
What the series says. Four straight quarters above $750 million, with the operating margin up from 9.6% to 18.2% across 2026, is new for Bloom; the December 2024 quarter's 18.3% margin was followed by a loss. The cash column is lumpier than the income statement: the strong cash quarters have been the December ones, and the September quarter is the weakest of 2026.
Where the September quarter's profit went. Changes from the cash-flow statements, US dollars in millions; a negative change is cash used.
| Line | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Nine months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | 73.7 | 198.9 | 249.0 | 521.5 |
| Accounts receivable | +11.8 | −101.4 | −175.2 | −264.8 |
| Contract assets | −64.7 | −123.0 | −430.3 | −618.0 |
| Inventories | −88.6 | −26.5 | −170.4 | −285.5 |
| Deferred revenue and customer deposits | +89.5 | +211.7 | +309.3 | +610.6 |
| Accounts payable and accrued expenses | +35.6 | +154.2 | +343.4 | +533.2 |
| Operating cash flow, quarters differenced (derived) | 73.6 | 226.4 | −27.1 | 272.9 |
| Receivables and contract assets build, share of revenue (derived) | 7.0% | 21.1% | 49.0% | n/a |
Contract assets doubled in the quarter, to $858.6 million from $428.3 million (10-Q, Note 3). That line is revenue recognized before Bloom can bill for it, and it is the largest reason a $249.0 million profit became a cash outflow. The deposits line is the counterweight: deferred revenue and customer deposits added $309.3 million in the quarter.
The guide, quarter by quarter. The full guidance block in the release: SEC filing: “Revenue: $4.4B - $4.6B •Non-GAAP Gross Margin: ~34% •Non-GAAP Operating Income: $960M - $1,030M •Non-GAAP EPS: $3.10 - $3.40”.
| Period | Revenue ($M) | Non-GAAP operating income ($M) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 751.1 | 129.7 | First-quarter release deck |
| Q2 2026 | 1,065.4 | 239.6 | Third-quarter release |
| Q3 2026 | 1,235.8 | 285.7 | Third-quarter release |
| Nine months | 3,052.3 | 655.0 | 10-Q; sum of the releases |
| Implied Q4 under the October guidance (derived) | 1,347.7–1,547.7 | 305.0–375.0 | Guidance less nine months |
| Implied Q4 under the July guidance (derived) | 847.7–1,147.7 | not computed | Guidance less nine months |
At the midpoints the implied fourth-quarter non-GAAP operating margin is 23.5%, against 23.1% in the September quarter, so the guide asks for more volume at a similar margin. Non-GAAP figures exclude stock-based compensation, $60.1 million of the September quarter's gap between $285.7 million non-GAAP and $225.4 million GAAP operating income. The non-GAAP EPS guide rose to $3.10–$3.40 from $2.55–$2.85 in July.
Margin quality. Nine-month product costs include a $37.2 million recovery of previously paid import tariffs (10-Q). Accrued warranty was $70.3 million at September 30, against $20.0 million at December 31. The Oracle warrant reduces revenue only as Oracle's systems deliver, so most of its $306.5 million cost is still ahead.
Balance sheet and dilution. Cash and equivalents were $2.49 billion at September 30. Recourse debt principal was $2.52 billion: $2.5 billion of 0% convertible notes due November 2030 and $22.8 million of 3.0% notes due 2029, after $149.5 million of note conversions in the nine months. The 2030 notes' fair value of $4.16 billion against a $2.45 billion carrying value reflects, in the 10-Q's words, "the rise in the Company's stock price"; their conversion price is $194.97. Shares outstanding rose 5.5% in nine months, to 295.5 million; diluted weighted shares were 324.3 million in the quarter.
Stock Setup and What to Watch (as of 2026-10-22)
Levels. The 200-day average is $218.86, the 50-day $249.16 and the 20-day $262.07; the 50-day still sits above the 200-day. Support: the $207.75 shelf (the nearest heavily traded price below), the $215.45 average cost since the year's low, and the year's $196.79 volume-weighted average price. The year's most-traded price is $138.85. Overhead: the $238.53 October 21 close, the $259.42 value-area high (the top of the band where about 70% of the year's volume traded), the month's high near $302, and the 52-week high near $351. The 30-day daily range ran from $210.74, an October 22 intraday low, to $302.35. The stock sits in the Momentum Board's multi-year outperformers in pullback; it is not on the Turnaround Watch.
The AI-power group on the October 22 close
| Stock | Makes | As of | Price ($) | 1D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | From 52-wk high (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | Fuel cells (primary power) | 2026-10-22 | 217.77 | -8.7 | 130.76 | -0.5 | -38.01 |
| GEV | Gas turbines, grid equipment | 2026-10-22 | 827.42 | -10.64 | 43.65 | -11.8 | -30.81 |
| VRT | Data-center power and cooling | 2026-10-22 | 195.59 | -7.81 | 13.99 | -27.3 | -48.52 |
| ETN | Electrical equipment | 2026-10-22 | 368.99 | -6.33 | 2.33 | -6.7 | -22.81 |
| VST | Power generation | 2026-10-22 | 140.83 | -9.81 | -24.22 | -8.7 | -30.85 |
| CEG | Nuclear generation | 2026-10-22 | 255.21 | -5.74 | -27.1 | -9.6 | -37.15 |
| FCEL | Fuel cells | 2026-10-22 | 11.58 | -12.27 | 48.27 | -21.8 | -69.43 |
| PLUG | Hydrogen fuel cells | 2026-10-22 | 1.38 | -2.13 | -52.74 | -43.1 | -68.13 |
The whole AI-power group fell on October 22, and Bloom kept its long trend better than any of it. GE Vernova fell more than 10% and Vistra nearly 10%. Vertiv, FuelCell Energy and Plug Power closed more than 20% under their 200-day averages; GE Vernova, Vistra, Constellation and Eaton between about 7% and 12% under. Only Bloom closed within 1% of its line, on the largest one-year gain in the group. Vertiv, GE Vernova and FuelCell are long trends under test; Vistra, Constellation and Plug are down on the year, bases that a 200-day reclaim would end. Bloom's fall was not a company-specific break: its regular-session drop came with the group and before its report.
Dated items.
- October 28 (provider dates): Microsoft, Alphabet and Vertiv are scheduled to report, the next read on what the largest AI buyers will spend and how they will fund it (October 22 market brief).
- February 2027: Project Jupiter's ribbon-cutting, reported moved from August 2026 on power-supply and permit delays (The Motley Fool, September 24).
- Fourth-quarter report: not yet scheduled; the 2025 fourth-quarter report came on February 5. The test is revenue against the implied $1.35–$1.55 billion and whether operating cash flow turns positive.
Price Data (live)
Live values from the desk's settled-close summaries; the dated sections above keep their own date's numbers.
| Metric | BE |
|---|---|
| As of (close) | 2026-10-23 |
| Price ($) | 193.3 |
| RSI (14) | 33.1 |
| vs SMA20 (%) | -24.9 |
| vs SMA50 (%) | -22.2 |
| vs SMA200 (%) | -11.9 |
| SMA20 ($) | 257.3 |
| SMA50 ($) | 248.3 |
| SMA200 ($) | 219.29 |
| Support shelf ($) | 161.82 |
| One-year VWAP ($) | 197.27 |
| Value-area high ($) | 259.42 |
| 1D (%) | -11.24 |
| 7D (%) | -12.66 |
| 30D (%) | -29.76 |
| 3M (%) | 4.55 |
| 1Y (%) | 90.59 |
| 2Y (%) | 2038.27 |
| 1Y vs S&P 500 (pts) | 77.46 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -44.97 |
Risks
Cash conversion. Receivables and contract assets grew by 49.0% of September-quarter revenue. If financiers or permits delay acceptance, the build keeps absorbing cash, and the company has said it may use equipment lease financing for its factories.
Concentration. Two counterparties took 69% of the September quarter; one took 73% of the June quarter. A pause at either vehicle's projects leaves no second engine on the filed record.
Gas, permits and opposition. The systems "need a constant source of fuel such as natural gas, biogas, or hydrogen" (10-K), and the 10-Q reports permitting delays even on fuel-cell projects as state moratoriums spread. Jupiter's reported power-supply and permit delays are the live example.
Financing and rates. Buyers finance servers, and the 10-Q says financing has become harder as AI infrastructure borrowers are seen as higher credit risks. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.13% on October 21 (FRED, as cited in the October 22 market brief).
Dilution. Shares outstanding up 5.5% in nine months, $2.5 billion of 2030 convertible notes with a conversion price of $194.97, under the October 22 close, and executive selling plans in place.
Litigation and supply chain. Securities class actions over scandium sourcing and the July 8 short-seller report, which the company rejects, against a 10-K that says the supply chain "is not dependent on China."
Crowding. The stock fell 52.5% from its June high to the July 28 close and is now 38% under that high again. This holder base sells disappointment hard, and it sold a beat.
Cross-references
- Watchlists: data-center backup power, AI power, AI bottlenecks, electricity, energy, EV and clean energy, AI scan, fuel cells and alternative data-center power, natural-gas turbines for data-center power, war sensitivity, SpaceX S-1 supply chain, tech insider buys, insider universe.
- The October 22 market brief, "The Funding Bill," reads the same day's AI supply-chain selloff and Meta's negative quarterly free cash flow as the AI build-out meeting its financing bill.
- The October 9 AI compute power vertical, "AI Money Bought Running Power Plants and Sold the Build-Out," lists Bloom in the backup-power group.
- Neocloud lane: Nebius is a named Bloom customer at Vineland, New Jersey (Nebius second-quarter shareholder letter).
- Prior work: the October 9 deep dive, the September 28 company profile and the April 10 deep dive (rows below). The October 9 dive's entry zone was retired October 19.
Refresh History
| Date | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 30D | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | $168.85 | 60.8 | +15.8% | +9.6% | Legacy dive: entry $145–$155, stop $135, target $181; cause of the run unsourced at the time. |
| 2026-09-28 | $262.87 | 52.7 | +1.5% | +24.7% | Profile: 🟡 wait for event review after the zone was reached on an 8.95% down day; zone $256–$273, stop $240, target $329. |
| 2026-10-09 | $280.50 | 54.0 | +1.3% | +4.2% | Dive: 🟡 wait for a retest of $256–$273, stop $240, first target $329; June quarter showed one counterparty at 73% of revenue. Zone retired October 19 after the range broke. |
Sources
- September-quarter filings: SEC 10-Q, filed 2026-10-22 (statements and notes; MD&A cash-flow analysis, installation, opposition and financing passages; Item 5); SEC 8-K, October 22; EX-99.1, third-quarter 2026 release (results, guidance, three-month cash-flow statement); EX-99.2, supplemental deck.
- Earlier filings: SEC 10-Q/A, filed 2026-07-29 (six-month cash-flow statement, June 30 balances, June-quarter concentration); SEC 10-K, filed 2026-02-09; 8-K results, July 28; first-quarter 2026 release, EX-99.1, April 28 and deck, EX-99.2 (first-quarter non-GAAP operating income, 2026 operating cash-flow projection); fourth-quarter 2025 release, EX-99.1, February 5; Business Wire, second-quarter 2026 release, July 28 (July guide). Quarterly series from SEC XBRL company facts.
- Company releases: third-quarter 2026 results; Bloom Energy and Oracle expand strategic partnership, up to 2.8 GW; results date announcement.
- News on the move: Yahoo Finance, October 23; Investing.com call-transcript story, October 22; 24/7 Wall St., October 22; Benzinga, October 22; MarketWatch (October 22) and Bloomberg (October 16), as cited in the October 22 and October 16 market briefs; Bloomberg, October 16.
- Before the report: The Motley Fool, October 21; The Motley Fool, October 20, Jupiter; The Motley Fool, October 19; Zacks, October 19; quote pages stockanalysis.com and Markets Insider (analyst targets).
- Oracle, Jupiter and the index: Reuters, September 24; The Motley Fool, September 24; Bloomberg, September 4.
- Social: Kaizen Investor on X, October 22; r/ValueInvesting, October 22; installed-cost estimate relayed by TheBuildout, October 15; the October 23 social-media search (two unrelated Hacker News items; YouTube and X legs timed out).
- Insiders and positioning: Form 4, Aman Joshi, October 1; trading plans in the September-quarter 10-Q, Item 5; short interest from Massive (settlement 2026-09-30).
- Nebius: Nebius second-quarter 2026 shareholder letter, SEC EX-99.2.
Tape: internal tape from the desk's summaries, settled 2026-10-22 close; the $202.84 extended-hours figure is a Schwab quote snapshot at 10:17 p.m. PT on October 22, not a close; company figures from the filings and releases linked above.