Food Security Scan
Food Security Scan
The agriculture book gave back last week's fertilizer repair and then bounced anyway: 9 of 11 names rose on Friday, against a retail, staples and travel tape that closed red across the board, but only 2 of 11 rose on the week and 1 of 11 on the month. Nutrien slipped 1.6% back under the 200-day it had just reclaimed; CF Industries, Deere, Archer-Daniels-Midland and the agriculture fund DBA still hold theirs (4 of 9, from 5). FMC fell another 10.78% after last week's preannounced collapse and is the only name under RSI 25. No cause is on file for Friday's green, and nothing in the long windows has changed the sorting: intact trends at CF, Deere and ADM, a trend under test at Nutrien, bases at Mosaic and Bunge.
Numbers are the settled October 23 close for all 11 names (Friday); 7D is the five sessions since the October 16 close. Corteva (CTVA) and Vylor (VYLR), the October 1 spin-off pair, now have enough bars for an RSI but not for moving averages or a trailing year; nine names are fully comparable. Comparison baseline is the October 16 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 2 of 11 up on the week (from 7) and 9 of 11 up on Friday (from 3); 1 of 11 up on the month (CF Industries, +0.03%); 4 of 9 comparable names above their 200-day (from 5); 7 of 9 under their 20-day (from 6); 5 of 9 with negative trailing-year alpha (unchanged); one name under RSI 25 (FMC 15.6) |
| Leaders | On the week: Vylor (+3.34%, RSI 62.2, new listing), Deere (+0.67%, 7.5% over its 200-day), the agriculture equity ETF MOO (-0.12%), CF Industries (-0.14%, RSI 52.9, thesis intact), DBA (-1.28%). On Friday: Vylor (+4.88%), Mosaic (+3.3% on 1.66 times volume), CF Industries (+1.79%) |
| Laggards | FMC (-10.78% week, RSI 15.6), Mosaic (-5.21%, RSI 27.9), Corteva (-3.34%, -3.19% Friday), ADM (-2.99%), Bunge (-2.75%) |
| The horizon check | Above the 200-day: Deere (+7.5%, +37.65% year), ADM (+5.3%, +28.2%), CF Industries (+4.6%, +38.82%), DBA (+2.0%, +3.53%). Under it: Nutrien (-1.6%, +20.59% year, thesis intact), MOO (-0.6%), Bunge (-11.9%, +6.75%), Mosaic (-25.9%, -39.83%), FMC (-60.3%, -83.33%). Positive alpha: CF Industries (25.69), Deere (24.52), ADM (15.07), Nutrien (7.46). Negative: Mosaic (-52.96), FMC (-96.46), Bunge (-6.38), DBA (-9.6), MOO (-2.46) |
| Caveat | Friday's 9-of-11 green and the week's softness have no cause on file. News for Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, ADM, Bunge and DBA was pulled after Friday's close and carries analyst items and quote pages, not an event for this list; Deere (October 9), Corteva (October 6) and FMC (October 16) are stale, MOO and Vylor have no news file, so news was not pulled for their moves. FMC's drop is last week's preannouncement and an unexplained further week; the list's old energy-shock framing dates to May |
What's Going On
Last week's fertilizer repair did not hold, and the grain names drifted. Nutrien closed at 69.74 (RSI 45.6), 1.6% under its 200-day (70.9) after closing 0.8% over it a week ago, down 2.13% on the week and 7.17% on the month; its thesis rating is intact, its trailing year is +20.59% with alpha 7.46, and it sits above its 68.52 shelf. CF Industries (120.68, RSI 52.9) is the strongest chart: 4.6% over its 200-day (115.4) and 3.5% over its 20-day, on a +38.82% year with alpha 25.69 and a thesis rating of intact; it rose 1.79% on Friday. Archer-Daniels-Midland (80.14, RSI 44.3) fell 2.99% on the week but is 5.3% over its 200-day (76.14) in a 24-week base with an 88.75 pivot; an October 21 Yahoo Finance item notes ADM sought to intervene in a pipeline fuel-reimbursement case, and Jefferies raised its target to $89 from $88 on October 19 (MarketScreener). Deere (646.15, RSI 46.7) rose 0.67% to stay 7.5% over its 200-day (600.99) on a +37.65% year with alpha 24.52; the FTC and USDA comment request on farm-equipment practices of October 7 (Bloomberg) is still the dated overhang, and its news was last pulled October 9. Bunge (103.22, RSI 38.9) is 11.9% under its 200-day (117.22) on a +6.75% year: a base, with that line as the thing to reclaim.
Friday's green is a contrary tape with no cause on file. Retail closed 0 of 22 up, consumer staples 0 of 10, travel 0 of 9 and airlines 0 of 6, while this list went 9 of 11 up (median +0.53%). Bloomberg's closing wrap framed the day around a jump in oil, with Brent near $117, and inflation worries ahead of next week's Fed decision. An X post by commodities columnist Javier Blas on October 20 argues that LNG at a four-year high above $30 per million Btu against US and Canadian gas near $3 gives US fertilizer and chemical makers a large feedstock cost advantage. Both are backdrop: no source on file ties either to CF Industries' or Nutrien's price, and the lane ranking still lists the lane as lagging (30-day relative strength -6.15, 58th of 125), with a median seven-day move of -2.13%. On October 19 the same ranking had listed food security among the turning laggards.
Mosaic and FMC remain the weak end for different reasons. Mosaic (17.84, RSI 27.9) rose 3.3% on Friday on 1.66 times volume, the heaviest on the list, but is 25.9% under its 200-day (24.09), on a -39.83% year with alpha -52.96 and 44.68% off its high; Yahoo Finance's headline page lists sulfur supply pressure, phosphate production cuts and heavy capital spending as the overhangs into its November 3 report. That is a base far below its line, with a reclaim of the 200-day as the thing that would end it; Friday's rise is cause not found (news pulled after the close, stock-events and captures checked). FMC (5.05, RSI 15.6) is the business-quality veto: on October 15 it preannounced third-quarter revenue of $65-125 million against an adjusted EBITDA loss of $510-565 million (StockAnalysis, via the October 15 market brief), and the brief labeled it a business-quality veto. It fell another 10.78% this week, is 60.3% under its 200-day (12.71) and 83.68% off its high; 8-Ks it filed October 21 were captured and not reviewed, and its news was last pulled October 16, so news was not pulled for this week's drop. Its report is listed October 29 (provider calendar) and November 3 (Trading Economics): the date is not firm.
Corteva and Vylor kept diverging. Vylor (74.59, RSI 62.2) rose 4.88% on Friday and 3.34% on the week and sits 3.62% off its high; Corteva (12.45, RSI 48.6) fell 3.19% on Friday and 3.34% on the week. Neither has a 20-day or 200-day yet, and both report November 11 (provider estimates).
The energy-to-hardship campaign (status: active) lists Mosaic, Nutrien, CF Industries, DBA, ADM and Bunge among its instruments. Its claim is that the Saudi phase of the Iran war reaches households through refining, freight and rates and, so far, not through grain and fertilizer; its own dated test is the October CPI on November 10, after the September print (October 14: food at home -0.1% on the month, energy +5.2%, per the campaign's review of the BLS release) left the food link undecided. This page does not decide the campaign's status.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- Breadth: 2 of 11 up on the week (Deere, Vylor), versus 7. Friday was 9 green, versus 3. The list is 1 of 11 up on the month.
- Above the 200-day: 4 of 9 (CF Industries, Deere, ADM, DBA), versus 5. Nutrien crossed back under (from 0.8% over to 1.6% under); CF Industries' cushion held (5.6% to 4.6%), Deere's matched (7.5%), ADM's shrank (9.3% to 5.3%), DBA's narrowed (3.5% to 2.0%).
- Alpha: the same four positive (Nutrien, CF Industries, Deere, ADM) and five negative (Mosaic, FMC, Bunge, DBA, MOO).
- RSI: FMC (15.6, from 17.1) is still the only name under 25; Mosaic is 27.9 (from 26.4); seven names are at 40 or higher, including Corteva (48.6) and Vylor (62.2), which now have an RSI. CF Industries (52.9) still leads the comparable names; Nutrien fell from 48.6 to 45.6, ADM from 51.5 to 44.3.
- Under the 20-day: 7 of 9, versus 6.
- Lane: 58th of 125 on 30-day relative strength (-6.15), listed as lagging.
How To Read The Board
CF Industries, Deere and ADM are above their 200-days on positive years and positive alpha: intact trends, with ADM's cushion shrinking. Nutrien is the trend under test, 1.6% under its line with a thesis rating of intact; a held close above 70.9 restores it. DBA and MOO are funds sitting on their lines (DBA 2.0% over, MOO 0.6% under) with slightly negative alpha, a 24-week base in each. Bunge (+6.75% year, alpha -6.38) and Mosaic (-39.83%) are bases under their lines; the 200-days (117.22 and 24.09) are what end them, and neither is dropped for its year. FMC takes the business-quality veto on the preannouncement, not on its chart.
This list was framed as an energy-shock-to-fertilizer play from an earlier phase of the Iran war; its notes date to May, so the board is read on price and the active campaign's dated tests, not on the old thesis.
Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages only; no crop-price, fertilizer-price or weather data. The thesis rating on file covers only Nutrien and CF Industries (both intact). Most news pulls carry quote pages and analyst items.
Price Table
Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Corteva and Vylor have an RSI but no moving averages or trailing year yet. Tape cells are live values for the October 23 close; the Signal column is a read of the tape.
| Stock | As of | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VYLR | 2026-10-23 | 74.59 | 62.2 | n/a | n/a | 3.34 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 🟡 new listing; best week and Friday; no averages yet |
| CF | 2026-10-23 | 120.68 | 52.9 | 116.57 | 3.5 | -0.14 | 0.03 | 38.82 | 4.6 | 🟢 above 200-day; thesis intact; positive alpha |
| CTVA | 2026-10-23 | 12.45 | 48.6 | n/a | n/a | -3.34 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 🟡 post-spin series; no averages yet |
| DE | 2026-10-23 | 646.15 | 46.7 | 655.12 | -1.4 | 0.67 | -8.93 | 37.65 | 7.5 | 🟢 above 200-day; positive alpha; pullback in an uptrend |
| MOO | 2026-10-23 | 81.69 | 45.8 | 81.56 | 0.2 | -0.12 | -3.11 | 10.68 | -0.6 | 🟡 fund basing on its 200-day; thin volume |
| NTR | 2026-10-23 | 69.74 | 45.6 | 69.79 | -0.1 | -2.13 | -7.17 | 20.59 | -1.6 | 🟡 back under 200-day; thesis intact; positive alpha |
| ADM | 2026-10-23 | 80.14 | 44.3 | 81.03 | -1.1 | -2.99 | -2.45 | 28.2 | 5.3 | 🟢 above 200-day; positive alpha; 24-week base |
| BG | 2026-10-23 | 103.22 | 38.9 | 105.84 | -2.5 | -2.75 | -7.41 | 6.75 | -11.9 | 🟡 under 200-day; flat year; basing |
| DBA | 2026-10-23 | 27.87 | 36 | 28.27 | -1.4 | -1.28 | -2.38 | 3.53 | 2 | 🟡 fund basing; above 200-day by 2.0% |
| MOS | 2026-10-23 | 17.84 | 27.9 | 19.65 | -9.2 | -5.21 | -26.8 | -39.83 | -25.9 | 🟡 base far under 200-day; RSI under 30; Friday cause not found |
| FMC | 2026-10-23 | 5.05 | 15.6 | 7.52 | -32.8 | -10.78 | -48.99 | -83.33 | -60.3 | 🔴 capitulation RSI; business-quality veto |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): FMC (15.6). The business-quality veto rests on the October 15 preannouncement (revenue of $65-125 million against an adjusted EBITDA loss of $510-565 million), not on the year; the RSI is not a signal.
Oversold (RSI 25-40), 3 names: MOS (27.9), DBA (36) and Bunge (38.9). Mosaic and Bunge are bases under their 200-days; DBA is a fund on its line.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+), 7 names: Vylor (62.2), CF Industries (52.9), Corteva (48.6), Deere (46.7), MOO (45.8), Nutrien (45.6), ADM (44.3). Nothing is near overbought. Corteva and Vylor have no moving averages yet.
Entry Zones
Screen output from the tape's own levels, not calls.
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| NTR | A held close above the 200-day (70.9); 68.52 shelf below; 82.55 pivot of a 10-week base | Thesis intact, +20.59% year, alpha 7.46; the reclaim failed once; reports November 4, investor day November 30 |
| CF | A hold of the 118.39 shelf, with the 200-day (115.4) below | Thesis intact, +38.82% year, alpha 25.69; reports November 4 |
| ADM | A hold of the 78.38 shelf; 200-day 76.14; 88.75 pivot of a 24-week base | +28.2% year, alpha 15.07; reports November 3 before the open |
| DE | A hold of the 604.53 shelf and the 200-day (600.99); 721.22 pivot of a 14-week base | +37.65% year, alpha 24.52; the FTC and USDA inquiry is the overhang; reports November 25 |
| BG, MOS | A reclaim of the 200-day ends each base: Bunge 117.22, Mosaic 24.09; no support shelf on file for either | Flat-to-down years; Bunge reports October 29 before the open, Mosaic November 3 (provider estimates) |
| DBA, MOO | DBA: 29.52 pivot over its 200-day (27.33), 27.2 shelf. MOO: 89.3 pivot, 200-day 82.19 | Funds basing 24 weeks; slightly negative alpha, no single-name zone |
| FMC, CTVA, VYLR | None | Business-quality veto (FMC); new post-spin series (Corteva, Vylor) |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF, DE, ADM | 🟢 Above the 200-day, positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | Intact trends; ADM's cushion has shrunk to 5.3% |
| NTR | 🟡 1.6% under the 200-day, thesis intact | 🔍 Watch | Needs a held close over 70.9; reports November 4 |
| BG, MOS | 🟡 Bases under their lines | 🔍 Watch | 200-days at 117.22 and 24.09; reports October 29 and November 3 |
| DBA, MOO | 🟡 Funds on their lines | 🔍 Watch | Basing 24 weeks |
| CTVA, VYLR | 🟡 New series | 🔍 Watch | RSI exists, averages do not; both report November 11 |
| FMC | 🔴 Business-quality veto | ❌ Don't buy | Preannounced adjusted EBITDA loss several times revenue |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Nutrien at its 200-day (70.9) | The reclaim failed within a week; a held close above is the next test |
| CF Industries at 115.4 and the 118.39 shelf; Deere at 600.99; ADM at 76.14 | The three intact trends; ADM's cushion has shrunk from 9.3% to 5.3% |
| Whether Friday's 9 of 11 has a cause | Brent near $117 (Bloomberg) and a four-year high in LNG (Javier Blas on X) are backdrop; a dated company or commodity item would tell whether it can last |
| Bunge and FMC October 29, ADM and Mosaic November 3, Nutrien and CF Industries November 4, Corteva and Vylor November 11, Deere November 25 | First dated tests for the fertilizer and grain names (provider estimates; FMC's date is not firm) |
| October CPI, November 10 | The energy-to-hardship campaign's second dated test of whether fuel costs reach food; the September print left it undecided |
| Mosaic's overhangs | Sulfur supply, phosphate production cuts and capital spending ahead of November 3 |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, relative volume, support shelves, base pivots): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-23 close — food-security; lane rank and medians — rotation-map.
- FMC preannouncement: StockAnalysis, October 15 (news check latest, fetched 2026-10-16T01:58Z) and the October 15 market brief — 2026-10-15-market-brief; Trading Economics report date from the same check. FMC 8-Ks filed October 21 (contents not reviewed): 2026-10-21-fmc-8-k-0000950103-26-015974,
2026-10-21-fmc-8-k-0001193125-26-427896.md. - Friday backdrop: Bloomberg, October 23 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-10-23/chipmakers-post-longest-weekly-drop-since-november-video (capture 2026-10-23-bloomberg-chipmakers-post-longest-weekly-drop-since-november-tndhldn3n09900); lane counts: the October 23 market brief — 2026-10-23-market-brief. Feedstock post: Javier Blas on X, October 20, as quoted in 2026-10-20-jimcramer-so-bullish-no-one-cares-now-71415867 (the quoted post's capture is incomplete).
- ADM, Mosaic, Nutrien and Bunge items: aggregator pages in stocks{ADM,MOS,NTR,BG}/news/latest.json` (all fetched 2026-10-23T23:26Z to 23:34Z, ok). Deere inquiry: Bloomberg, October 7 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/ftc-usda-seek-comment-on-farm-equipment-market-practices.
- Campaign: the energy-to-humanitarian-transmission campaign record (last reviewed 2026-10-14; next review 2026-11-10) — energy-to-humanitarian-transmission. List history: watchlist description (energy-shock cascade framing; notes dated May 2026) — food-security.
- Cause checks for October 19-23: news checks under stocks/news/latest.json
(pulled after Friday's close: <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/NTR/" data-ticker="NTR">NTR</a>, <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/MOS/" data-ticker="MOS">MOS</a>, <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/CF/" data-ticker="CF">CF</a>, <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/ADM/" data-ticker="ADM">ADM</a>, <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/BG/" data-ticker="BG">BG</a>, <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/DBA/" data-ticker="DBA">DBA</a>; stale: <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/DE/" data-ticker="DE">DE</a> 2026-10-09, <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/CTVA/" data-ticker="CTVA">CTVA</a> 2026-10-06, <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/FMC/" data-ticker="FMC">FMC</a> 2026-10-16; none for <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/MOO/" data-ticker="MOO">MOO</a> and <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/VYLR/" data-ticker="VYLR">VYLR</a>),research/stock-events/(no event for this list dated 2026-10-19 through 2026-10-23), and articles,tweets/` searched by company name (only the Blas post above). - Scheduled reports:
research/stock-events/rows for BG, FMC, ADM, MOS, NTR, CF, CTVA, VYLR, DE (provider estimates). - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-10-16-food-security.
Related
8 eventsSource links
Tweets, videos, filings, articles, and source pages tied to this read.