Watchlist / livestock-disease

watchlist

Watchlist / livestock-disease

current roster plus event stream

symbols 20 events 422 latest

Livestock-disease / beef supply-shock — single consolidated watchlist + alert hub for the New World Screwworm → cattle-supply thesis (first US case 2026-06-03; US herd 75-yr low; record beef). ROLES: (A) Animal-health supply-chain pick — ELAN (Elanco, named NWS-treatment supplier, the clean play), PAHC (Phibro, livestock-pure), NEOG (Neogen, biosecurity/diagnostics), ZTS (companion-heavy + cattle parasiticide tailwind, broken on own issues), IDXX (vet diagnostics, weak fit). (B) Beef-HURT — TSN/JBS (packers, short their cattle input), TXRH/WEN/BLMN/JACK (beef-heavy restaurants); MCD/CMG straddle. (C) Protein-ALTERNATIVE — HRL/SFD (pork, the working sub), PPC (poultry), CALM (eggs), WING (chicken), BYND (plant-based). (D) Cascade — DAR (rendering; fewer cattle = less feedstock, likely hurt). ALERT TRIGGER: a screwworm detection BEYOND the 20km infested zone = escalation → the dispersion (hurt-down/alt-up) that converts watch→trade. As of 2026-06-04 the rotation is NOT in the tape (complex sold off together); clean expression is up-chain at ELAN. Source: research/investigations/2026-06-04-beef-crisis-protein-rotation-complex-map.md.

Showing 120 of 422 events.

Cumulative return since Sep 21 — both lines start at 0%, so the gap between them IS the out/under-performance. Hover for daily values.
1D7D30D3M1Y
cohort +2.1%-0.6%-0.8%-6.2%-9.5%
SPY -1.2%-1.0%-1.2%+3.5%+14.4%
Δ +3.2%+0.5%+0.4%-9.7%-23.9%

equal-weight · buy-and-hold from window start, no rebalancing · 3M+ windows are a current-roster backcast.

30D breadth 10/20 up

trend: 8 up · 0 flat · 12 down · avg RSI 52 · 10% above SMA200 · covered 20/20

contributors

BLMN+1.0pp+20.1%
WING+0.9pp+18.1%
PAHC+0.7pp+13.3%
ZTS+0.6pp+12.5%
TSN+0.5pp+10.1%

detractors

BYND-1.8pp-36.8%
JACK-0.7pp-14.8%
NEOG-0.7pp-14.3%
CMG-0.7pp-13.8%
CALM-0.6pp-12.7%

Holdings

ELAN $22.69 -1.1% 30d coming into play PAHC $39.81 +13.3% 30d retreating NEOG $11.98 -14.3% 30d coming into play ZTS $82.00 +12.5% 30d retreating IDXX $566.76 +8.7% 30d retreating TSN $57.07 +10.1% 30d coming into play JBS $12.37 +4.0% 30d retreating TXRH $172.78 +4.0% 30d coming into play WEN $6.57 -3.5% 30d retreating BLMN $10.27 +20.1% 30d coming into play JACK $11.41 -14.8% 30d retreating MCD $252.63 +0.9% 30d retreating CMG $28.14 -13.8% 30d retreating HRL $21.36 +5.1% 30d retreating SFD $18.81 -3.8% 30d retreating PPC $28.09 -3.1% 30d retreating CALM $63.83 -12.7% 30d retreating WING $120.87 +18.1% 30d retreating BYND $7.27 -36.8% 30d retreating DAR $55.64 -9.7% 30d coming into play
BLMN $10.27 +2.2% +20.1% +25.4% +33.2% 67 coming into play -18.7%
WING $120.87 +0.8% +18.1% -10.4% -54.0% 53 retreating -60.1%
PAHC $39.81 +1.4% +13.3% +16.9% -0.9% 66 retreating -33.7%
ZTS $82.00 +3.0% +12.5% +10.0% -44.3% 74 retreating -44.7%
TSN $57.07 +2.1% +10.1% +0.6% +8.3% 71 coming into play -17.9%
IDXX $566.76 +2.4% +8.7% +5.1% -10.6% 66 retreating -26.4%
HRL $21.36 +4.5% +5.1% -14.6% -11.6% 64 retreating -19.7%
TXRH $172.78 +3.0% +4.0% -9.5% -3.4% 57 coming into play -20.1%
JBS $12.37 -0.8% +4.0% +2.0% -5.6% 48 retreating -33.7%
MCD $252.63 +2.6% +0.9% -3.9% -18.5% 66 retreating -26.1%
ELAN $22.69 +0.6% -1.1% -8.4% +4.8% 48 coming into play -18.9%
PPC $28.09 +1.2% -3.1% +0.6% -26.4% 46 retreating -37.4%
WEN $6.57 +4.6% -3.5% -8.4% -28.7% 48 retreating -35.1%
SFD $18.81 +2.8% -3.8% -27.9% -13.7% 45 retreating -36.9%
DAR $55.64 -5.8% -9.7% -12.2% +78.8% 32 coming into play -20.5%
CALM $63.83 +5.3% -12.7% -27.6% -30.0% 41 retreating -33.0%
CMG $28.14 +0.1% -13.8% -12.1% -32.4% 27 retreating -33.6%
NEOG $11.98 +1.6% -14.3% +24.7% +95.1% 48 coming into play -16.0%
JACK $11.41 +3.2% -14.8% -17.1% -37.5% 36 retreating -52.2%
BYND $7.27 +6.6% -36.8% -56.7% -93.2% 36 retreating -96.8%

Feed generated 2026-10-23.